Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
113 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY SLOW MOVING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF TEXAS WITH CLOSED LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN THE N CARIB TO KEEP
DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
END THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF TO KEEP THE AREA
IN WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER
ENERGY OFF THE GULF...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCING...DIURNAL
HEATING...AND WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY MOST AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW OVER E GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VORT MAXES MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER
ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 08/00Z TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 08/02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS ALLOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER THE E GULF WATERS WITH WINDS IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RESIDUAL SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEEP AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY HIGHER NEAR STRONGER
STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  75  87 /  60  70  40  60
FMY  76  86  74  87 /  50  60  40  60
GIF  73  87  72  88 /  60  70  40  50
SRQ  76  85  74  86 /  60  70  40  60
BKV  72  87  70  88 /  60  70  40  60
SPG  78  85  77  86 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
541 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-071600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
541 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND UPPER ENERGY
STREAMING OVER THE AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. TO AVOID
GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED
THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR
PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE
YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY AS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND ENERGY ALOFT SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
310 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

FLZ048-049-071930-
HERNANDO-PASCO-
310 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HERNANDO AND NORTHWESTERN PASCO
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED NEAR ARIPEKA...OR NEAR HUDSON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS
STORM WILL AFFECT HUDSON...BAYONET POINT...HERNANDO BEACH AND
ARIPEKA...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2841 8272 2845 8268 2847 8269 2849 8268
      2850 8269 2854 8267 2859 8267 2864 8269
      2870 8260 2869 8242 2866 8241 2866 8232
      2842 8213 2829 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 253DEG 28KT 2844 8268

14-MROCZKA