Flood Watch 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
438 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS
TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WHICH IS STILL MOVING VERY LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN A GENERAL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO A
WESTERLY WIND AS THE STORM TRAVERSES FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE COASTAL FLOODING...INLAND
FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BANDS OF SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES TODAY. WIND PROFILES WILL STILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH A TORNADO THREAT...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY BE
AFTER THE SUN HAS BEEN UP FOR A WHILE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 80S.

COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS DURING THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDES. WINDS HAVE MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TODAY
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY...WHICH MAY ADD ANOTHER FOOT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS MAX HEIGHTS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CLIMBING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS SHOULD STAY IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD AS
SLOW MOVING DEBBY KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR
BOATERS. DEBBY WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HUMIDITY PROBLEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION NUMBERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  78  87  77 /  80  70  70  50
FMY  88  78  88  77 /  60  50  70  50
GIF  88  75  87  74 /  80  70  70  50
SRQ  85  79  88  78 /  70  60  70  50
BKV  87  76  87  74 /  80  70  70  50
SPG  86  79  86  80 /  70  70  70  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-
     DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-LEE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-LEE.

GULF WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...63/JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE

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