Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

July 22, 2012Leon County, Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this special weather statement at Jul 22, 2012, 7:23 PM EDT for Leon County, Florida. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 22, 2012, 7:23 PM EDT (23:23 UTC)
Expired: Jul 22, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL

County Leon County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1856 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 850 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 22, 4:11 PM EDT, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 4:11 PM EDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]... Still waiting for the expected
convection to fire off and become more Sct-Likely in nature as was
fcst in the last package, but some storms are finally beginning to
fire along the Sea Breeze Fronts over the western FL Big Bend and
Panhandle. Also, where the Isolated Svr storms are in the grids
until 00 UTC, some weaker convection is finally getting started
over Dixie County, as well as off to the east of our CWA, so if
our 11Z WRF run holds true, the late start that it showed could
still come through. For tonight, used a Blend of our local CAM
PoPs and Confidence in Guidance, which gave us much higher PoPs
than any of the usual numerical Guidance (such as the MAV and
MET). Did lower them just a touch to blend in with our surrounding
offices, but does keep fairly high PoPs in the Gulf through the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A tropical wave currently situated in the Florida Straits will
move into the extreme eastern Gulf on Monday. This wave will
provide synoptic scale forcing to assist the subsequently disturbed
seabreeze fronts. PoPs above climatology are expected tomorrow
with solid 50% rain chances across north Florida, decreasing to
30% further north into Georgia. On Tuesday, the wave will not be
as prevalent as deep layer ridging becomes dominant. Regardless,
ample moisture will be available for the afternoon seabreezes to
tap into and PoPs reflect this, with a similar gradient to Monday.
The threat for strong storms with gusty winds exists each
afternoon.

PoPs will be at or above climatology for most locations through
Tuesday. Max temps will be above average in areas not receiving
much rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences with troughs in Nrn
stream over Wrn states and another along East Coast with axis SSE
into adjacent Wrn Atlc. Srn stream marked by ridge over West Coast
and another full latitude mid-upper ridge with axis from MN SEWD to
NE Gulf region and into Atlc opposite FL. Deep layer ridge also set
up across Srn Peninsula. At surface, 1018mb high well off FL coast
with ridging WWD across Cntrl FL and into Gulf of Mex. Further SEWD,
local area now on backside of weak tropical wave. Finally, looking
upstream, low off Canadian Maritimes with backdoor cold front SSW
down off Atlc coast then WWD across Mid-Atlc states.

During the rest of period, GFS and ECMWF show that both troughs
deamplify and push EWD with Ern trough lifting further into Atlc. In
response, upstream ridge breaks down with axis shunted EWD into SE
region by Wed night. Likewise H5 Atlc ridge builds back WWD under
lifting trough to merge with SE ridge with local flow backing to
more SLY allowing fair amount of moisture to remain under ridge. As
upstream NRN trough with assocd significant upper low moves
progressively ESE thru late work week, SE ridge increasingly
flattens, weakens and by weekend is displaced by this trough. At
surface, ridge holds firm into Fri. Then, models hint at weak trough
extending from above front SWD across SRN GA weakening the ridge
and, in combination with above upstream upper trough, shunting ridge
swd. Locally, all this translates to warmer temps and muggy
conditions, and a return to more normal summertime pattern with W to
SW flow favoring Gulf seabreeze driven aftn/early eve rain. Model
sounding profiles show generally 1.8 to 2.3 inch PWs and K indices
in the 30s thru period so locally heavy rain and ample thunderstorms
and lightning possible each aftn/eve.

With seabreeze impact will keep PoPs near seasonal levels with
low-mid sct POPs each day, wdly sct each eve and nil at night. Min
and Max temps will generally be a 2 to 5 degrees above normal thru
the period. (avg inland min/max is 71/82 degrees). Heat indices will
max out at 103 to 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 20Z Sunday]...
With the storms now beginning to fire this afternoon, will likely
need to amend a few of the sites for timing as well as adding a
convective tempo at ECP. Still have VFR holding in at DHN and ABY
with VCTS. Overnight, expect VFR conditions to generally prevail,
with periods of MVFR levels at ABY and VLD between 08 and 12 UTC.
&&

.MARINE...
A tropical wave moving through the Florida Straits, and eventually
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will increase winds to near
cautionary levels overnight through Monday. Otherwise, winds and
seas will remain low under the influence of high pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated rain chances and plenty of low level moisture will keep
afternoon Relative Humidities safely above Red Flag Levels across
the Tri-State area for the next several days.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Gould
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Block
AVIATION...Gould
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/Gould

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 4:42 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-232045-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 /342 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 22, 4:46 PM EDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             30.44N 85.19W
07/22/2012  E0.50 INCH       CALHOUN            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 6:48 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
548 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

ALZ066-067-069-222315-
DALE AL-HOUSTON AL-HENRY AL-
548 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DALE...WESTERN
HENRY AND NORTHWEST HOUSTON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

AT 544 PM CDT...A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE DOTHAN
AIRPORT. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDLAND CITY...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3162 8529 3123 8530 3119 8558 3153 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 135DEG 10KT 3129 8551

42-DVD

Local storm report, Jul 22, 7:16 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW BETHEL            30.26N 84.35W
07/22/2012                   WAKULLA            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A BILLBOARD AND TREES BLOWN DOWN ON LONNIE
            RAKER ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 267...A FEW MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
            OF WAKULLA SPRINGS STATE PARK.

&&

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 7:17 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
717 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

ALZ066-067-230000-
DALE AL-HENRY AL-
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DALE AND HENRY
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

AT 607 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KIRKLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3171 8523 3170 8522 3136 8531 3132 8560
      3162 8567 3162 8543 3170 8542 3171 8541
      3171 8523 3174 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 161DEG 14KT 3143 8544

9-FOURNIER

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 7:23 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FLZ017-018-230000-
LEON FL-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN JEFFERSON
AND LEON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

AT 722 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...OR NEAR LLOYD...
MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3046 8430 3060 8430 3058 8388 3042 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 087DEG 24KT 3049 8404

42-DVD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 4:04 AM EDT	Rip Current Statement	TAE	Bay, Walton	18 hr
Jul 22, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Calhoun, Gulf	36 min
Jul 22, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Calhoun	35 min
Jul 22, 4:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Calhoun	35 min
Jul 22, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Washington	32 min
Jul 22, 7:10 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Jul 22, 6:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Dale	27 min
Jul 22, 7:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Dale	43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.