Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]... Still waiting for the expected
convection to fire off and become more Sct-Likely in nature as was
fcst in the last package, but some storms are finally beginning to
fire along the Sea Breeze Fronts over the western FL Big Bend and
Panhandle. Also, where the Isolated Svr storms are in the grids
until 00 UTC, some weaker convection is finally getting started
over Dixie County, as well as off to the east of our CWA, so if
our 11Z WRF run holds true, the late start that it showed could
still come through. For tonight, used a Blend of our local CAM
PoPs and Confidence in Guidance, which gave us much higher PoPs
than any of the usual numerical Guidance (such as the MAV and
MET). Did lower them just a touch to blend in with our surrounding
offices, but does keep fairly high PoPs in the Gulf through the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A tropical wave currently situated in the Florida Straits will
move into the extreme eastern Gulf on Monday. This wave will
provide synoptic scale forcing to assist the subsequently disturbed
seabreeze fronts. PoPs above climatology are expected tomorrow
with solid 50% rain chances across north Florida, decreasing to
30% further north into Georgia. On Tuesday, the wave will not be
as prevalent as deep layer ridging becomes dominant. Regardless,
ample moisture will be available for the afternoon seabreezes to
tap into and PoPs reflect this, with a similar gradient to Monday.
The threat for strong storms with gusty winds exists each
afternoon.

PoPs will be at or above climatology for most locations through
Tuesday. Max temps will be above average in areas not receiving
much rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences with troughs in Nrn
stream over Wrn states and another along East Coast with axis SSE
into adjacent Wrn Atlc. Srn stream marked by ridge over West Coast
and another full latitude mid-upper ridge with axis from MN SEWD to
NE Gulf region and into Atlc opposite FL. Deep layer ridge also set
up across Srn Peninsula. At surface, 1018mb high well off FL coast
with ridging WWD across Cntrl FL and into Gulf of Mex. Further SEWD,
local area now on backside of weak tropical wave. Finally, looking
upstream, low off Canadian Maritimes with backdoor cold front SSW
down off Atlc coast then WWD across Mid-Atlc states.

During the rest of period, GFS and ECMWF show that both troughs
deamplify and push EWD with Ern trough lifting further into Atlc. In
response, upstream ridge breaks down with axis shunted EWD into SE
region by Wed night. Likewise H5 Atlc ridge builds back WWD under
lifting trough to merge with SE ridge with local flow backing to
more SLY allowing fair amount of moisture to remain under ridge. As
upstream NRN trough with assocd significant upper low moves
progressively ESE thru late work week, SE ridge increasingly
flattens, weakens and by weekend is displaced by this trough. At
surface, ridge holds firm into Fri. Then, models hint at weak trough
extending from above front SWD across SRN GA weakening the ridge
and, in combination with above upstream upper trough, shunting ridge
swd. Locally, all this translates to warmer temps and muggy
conditions, and a return to more normal summertime pattern with W to
SW flow favoring Gulf seabreeze driven aftn/early eve rain. Model
sounding profiles show generally 1.8 to 2.3 inch PWs and K indices
in the 30s thru period so locally heavy rain and ample thunderstorms
and lightning possible each aftn/eve.

With seabreeze impact will keep PoPs near seasonal levels with
low-mid sct POPs each day, wdly sct each eve and nil at night. Min
and Max temps will generally be a 2 to 5 degrees above normal thru
the period. (avg inland min/max is 71/82 degrees). Heat indices will
max out at 103 to 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 20Z Sunday]...
With the storms now beginning to fire this afternoon, will likely
need to amend a few of the sites for timing as well as adding a
convective tempo at ECP. Still have VFR holding in at DHN and ABY
with VCTS. Overnight, expect VFR conditions to generally prevail,
with periods of MVFR levels at ABY and VLD between 08 and 12 UTC.
&&

.MARINE...
A tropical wave moving through the Florida Straits, and eventually
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will increase winds to near
cautionary levels overnight through Monday. Otherwise, winds and
seas will remain low under the influence of high pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated rain chances and plenty of low level moisture will keep
afternoon Relative Humidities safely above Red Flag Levels across
the Tri-State area for the next several days.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Gould
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Block
AVIATION...Gould
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-232045-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 /342 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             30.44N 85.19W
07/22/2012  E0.50 INCH       CALHOUN            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

08-LAMERS