Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Broken QLCS continues to evolve ahead of the primary cold front
across our area. The synoptic cold front appears to stretch from
near Americus, GA to near Dothan, AL to near Destin, FL as of 15z.
The northern end of the QLCS has pushed out ahead of the main cold
front and stretches from near Tifton to Lake Seminole to just west
of Panama City.

The warm sector out ahead of the main QLCS appears to be a
relatively homogeneous environment that is in favorable parameter
space for supercell thunderstorms. Modifying the 12z TAE sounding
for the current observation at the airport (74/69) yields roughly
1700 j/kg of CAPE with no CINH when lifting a surface parcel. This
is also assuming no erosion to the elevated mixed layer around
700-600mb. If forced ascent along and ahead of the cold front has
moistened and cooled that layer, actual instability could be
closer to 2000 j/kg. This is noteworthy given that low stratus has
failed to clear out over the Florida Panhandle yet. In fact, even
prior to the slight destabilization this morning the environment
was already supportive of low-topped supercells with transient
circulations. We have received several reports of damage and
possible tornadoes already this morning, primarily with discrete
supercells that managed to stay just ahead of the primary line.

Therefore, if we get some partial clearing from Panama City and
Apalachicola River NE to near Tallahassee over the next few hours
it is likely that the environment would only become more favorable
for tornadic supercells. This will be closely monitored as we move
into the early afternoon hours. Our local 4km WRF-ARW has hinted
for the past several runs that we would see an increase in updraft
velocities and updraft helicities around 17-19z.

VWP Hodograph from the Tallahassee (TLH) radar has shown slight
increases in 0-1km shear and SRH over the past couple hours, now
up to 34 knots and 300 m^2/s^2 respectively.

We will also need to closely monitor the potential for echo
training along the cold front for any localized flash flooding,
but so far the QLCS has been progressive enough to keep rain rates
below flash flood guidance (more in the 60-80% of FFG range).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  46  69  39  73 / 100 100  10   0   0
Panama City   76  47  68  46  72 / 100 100  10   0   0
Dothan        73  41  69  41  69 /  90  70   0   0   0
Albany        75  42  67  39  69 / 100  80  10   0   0
Valdosta      79  46  66  39  70 / 100 100  20   0   0
Cross City    79  51  64  36  73 /  70  90  30   0   0
Apalachicola  78  50  67  44  72 / 100 100  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for all zones.

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for all zones.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for all marine zones.

&&

Lamers

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-041000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 /426 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE BEACHES WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LATER
THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

BREEZY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. SPOTTERS SHOULD CONSIDER
THEMSELVES ACTIVATED AT THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF A WATCH OR WARNING
IN THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
242 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       THOMASVILLE             30.84N 83.99W
03/03/2012  M5.00 INCH       THOMAS             GA   OFFICIAL NWS OB

            5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 9 AM.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E MADISON             30.47N 83.40W
03/03/2012                   MADISON            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR MADISON.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEE                     30.42N 83.30W
03/03/2012                   MADISON            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE ON HOUSE IN LEE.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TORNADO          1 W LAKELAND            31.04N 83.08W
03/03/2012  UNK              LANIER             GA   PUBLIC

            EXTENSIVE ROOF DAMGE TO THE HOSPITAL. OUT
            BUILDINGS HAVE DAMAGE. NO POWER AND GAS
            LEAK.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

FLZ014-015-017>019-026>028-114-115-118-127-128-032100-
LEON FL-MADISON FL-INLAND TAYLOR FL-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-INLAND GULF
FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-COASTAL JEFFERSON FL-COASTAL WAKULLA FL-COASTAL
GULF FL-COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND FRANKLIN FL-INLAND WAKULLA
FL-LIBERTY FL-
300 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN...GULF...
JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST/300 PM CST/

AT 255 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO TO CRAWFORDVILLE TO 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN TO
PORT ST. JOE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 2972 8532 2981 8531 2986 8535 2987 8538
      2982 8540 2984 8543 2988 8539 2987 8536
      2989 8537 3022 8501 3036 8462 3046 8397
      3041 8338 3013 8380 3012 8409 3005 8453
      2967 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 272DEG 32KT 3042 8395 3019 8433
          3016 8484 2983 8521

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E MARIANNA            30.77N 85.22W
03/03/2012                   JACKSON            FL   PUBLIC

            DITCHES OVERFLOWING WATER INTO A HOME.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM