Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tallahassee, FL

740 
WWUS52 KTAE 031923
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

FLC039-065-073-077-129-032000-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-120303T2000Z/
LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-JEFFERSON FL-GADSDEN FL-WAKULLA FL-
223 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST
FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...SOUTH CENTRAL GADSDEN...WEST CENTRAL
JEFFERSON...CENTRAL LIBERTY AND SOUTHERN LEON COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FALLSCHASE TO BROWN HOUSE TO VILAS...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
OFFICE ON THE FLORIDA STATE CAMPUS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRAGG 
STADIUM...FLORIDA A AND M...GOVERNORS SQUARE MALL...GAITHER 
COMMUNITY CENTER...INDIAN HEAD ACRES...NORTH FLORIDA FAIRGROUNDS... 
LAKE MUNSON...SMITH CREEK...SOUTHWOOD...APALACHEE REGIONAL PARK... 
CAPITOLA...LEON SINKS...LLOYD...WOODVILLE...ARRAN...NASH...CODY... 
WAUKEENAH...LIMESTONE...BETHEL...WAKULLA SPRINGS...NATURAL BRIDGE 
AND VEREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 8385 3026 8417 3005 8471 3019 8511
      3039 8476 3054 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 263DEG 43KT 3051 8417 3033 8447
          3019 8484

$$

08-LAMERS

517 
WWUS52 KTAE 031955
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

FLC039-065-073-077-129-032005-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-120303T2000Z/
LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-JEFFERSON FL-GADSDEN FL-WAKULLA FL-
255 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GADSDEN...WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON...CENTRAL LIBERTY AND
SOUTHERN LEON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM EST...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER 
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR 
OR SO.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3046 8385 3026 8417 3005 8471 3019 8511
      3039 8476 3054 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 263DEG 43KT 3055 8371 3037 8402
          3023 8439

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Broken QLCS continues to evolve ahead of the primary cold front
across our area. The synoptic cold front appears to stretch from
near Americus, GA to near Dothan, AL to near Destin, FL as of 15z.
The northern end of the QLCS has pushed out ahead of the main cold
front and stretches from near Tifton to Lake Seminole to just west
of Panama City.

The warm sector out ahead of the main QLCS appears to be a
relatively homogeneous environment that is in favorable parameter
space for supercell thunderstorms. Modifying the 12z TAE sounding
for the current observation at the airport (74/69) yields roughly
1700 j/kg of CAPE with no CINH when lifting a surface parcel. This
is also assuming no erosion to the elevated mixed layer around
700-600mb. If forced ascent along and ahead of the cold front has
moistened and cooled that layer, actual instability could be
closer to 2000 j/kg. This is noteworthy given that low stratus has
failed to clear out over the Florida Panhandle yet. In fact, even
prior to the slight destabilization this morning the environment
was already supportive of low-topped supercells with transient
circulations. We have received several reports of damage and
possible tornadoes already this morning, primarily with discrete
supercells that managed to stay just ahead of the primary line.

Therefore, if we get some partial clearing from Panama City and
Apalachicola River NE to near Tallahassee over the next few hours
it is likely that the environment would only become more favorable
for tornadic supercells. This will be closely monitored as we move
into the early afternoon hours. Our local 4km WRF-ARW has hinted
for the past several runs that we would see an increase in updraft
velocities and updraft helicities around 17-19z.

VWP Hodograph from the Tallahassee (TLH) radar has shown slight
increases in 0-1km shear and SRH over the past couple hours, now
up to 34 knots and 300 m^2/s^2 respectively.

We will also need to closely monitor the potential for echo
training along the cold front for any localized flash flooding,
but so far the QLCS has been progressive enough to keep rain rates
below flash flood guidance (more in the 60-80% of FFG range).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  46  69  39  73 / 100 100  10   0   0
Panama City   76  47  68  46  72 / 100 100  10   0   0
Dothan        73  41  69  41  69 /  90  70   0   0   0
Albany        75  42  67  39  69 / 100  80  10   0   0
Valdosta      79  46  66  39  70 / 100 100  20   0   0
Cross City    79  51  64  36  73 /  70  90  30   0   0
Apalachicola  78  50  67  44  72 / 100 100  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for all zones.

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for all zones.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for all marine zones.

&&

Lamers

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-041000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 /426 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE BEACHES WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LATER
THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

BREEZY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. SPOTTERS SHOULD CONSIDER
THEMSELVES ACTIVATED AT THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF A WATCH OR WARNING
IN THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
132 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N STEELE CITY         30.75N 85.38W
03/03/2012                   JACKSON            FL   PUBLIC

            HOUSE FLOODED NEAR HWY 231 AND I-10. SHERIFF
            DEPT. COMING TO TURN OFF POWER.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TORNADO          2 NE HANSELL            31.05N 83.04W
03/03/2012  UNK              LANIER             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR HWY 122 AND
            HWY 37.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WETUMPKA            30.48N 84.61W
03/03/2012                   GADSDEN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            20-25 TREES DOWN NO STRUCTUAL DAMAGE.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TORNADO          6 WSW MEIGS             31.02N 83.18W
03/03/2012  UNK              LANIER             GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF HOMES OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
153 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TORNADO          2 N MOODY AFB           31.01N 83.19W
03/03/2012                   LOWNDES            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO MOBILE HOMES FLIPPED. POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.
            BARN DAMAGED. ON BEATTY MILL CREEK.

&&

CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT

DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

FLZ014>018-026-027-112-114-115-127-032000-
LEON FL-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-INLAND GULF FL-COASTAL WAKULLA FL-COASTAL
GULF FL-COASTAL BAY FL-COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND FRANKLIN FL-GADSDEN
FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
156 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BAY...FRANKLIN...
GADSDEN...GULF...JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 300 PM EST/200 PM CST/

AT 152 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAIRO TO
MEXICO BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TALLAHASSEE BY 215 PM EST.
  WOODVILLE BY 235 PM EST.
  MONTICELLO BY 240 PM EST.
  APALACHICOLA BY 245 PM EST.
  EASTPOINT BY 255 PM EST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2971 8510 2995 8545 3067 8445 3065 8362
      2971 8489 2973 8492 2978 8489 2978 8491
      2971 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 298DEG 25KT 3065 8422 2991 8535

22-BARRY