Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of a quasi-stnry frontal boundary and a passing
shortwave has produced a very active afternoon with strong to severe
storms with damaging winds and possibly hail and very heavy rain
across inland counties especially GA and Big Bend. Keeping a close
eye on GA storms for localized flooding concerns.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale pattern has deamplified some in last 24 hrs. This is
highlighted by low across Nrn ND/Canadian border with trough SWWD to
Srn CA. in nrn stream weak ridging Dakotas Ewd to Ern seaboard and
in Srn stream ridging Desert SW Ewd to TX and broad weak trough Ewd
into adjacent Wrn Atlc with low over Ern LA. Satellite shows
enhanced WNW flow from base of ridge in NM to across SE TX and into
local region. Also multiple MCV and/or other minor impulses
propagating E through this trough. One exited FL Panhandle this aftn
and another was moving ESE across MS.

Models show than Srn stream ridge will build ENE into the Srn Plains
with ridge extending toward NE region Fri into Sat. In response,
trough over extreme Wrn Atlc retrogrades SWWD over Nrn Gulf Coast to
Mid South region. Assocd shortwave across local area this aftn exits
local region by tonight while cutoff low develops just east of
Carolina coast with trough SWD to Bahamas. All this places local
area in wake of shortwave and in backside of Atlc trough yielding
dry NLY flow advecting into region. However new guidance keeps
moisture in a little longer. This reflected in area model soundings.
i.e. GFS TAE with 1.90 inch PWAT at 18z Thurs dropping to 1.13 inch
PWAT by 00z Sat.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis showed a cold front across Srn MS and AL, connecting to a
backdoor front from N FL into Atlc. This leaves a broad area of low
pressure ahead of these fronts across Srn most FL counties and
adjacent waters. MSAS shows a weak trough extending from backdoor
front swwd to a weak surface low roughly 50 miles south of Destin.
This backdoor front and trough were drifting swwd and helping to
focus this afternoons storms. Farther upstream, high pressure was
centered well north of the area and a high located in the central
GOMEX. Under high to our N building swd, the backdoor front will
move S into nrn most coastal waters this eve leaving drier air in
its wake. Upstream, strong high beginning to build swd along Ern
seaboard. This will push backdoor front S of local area but latest
guidance slowing it down and keeping more moisture in area into Fri.
then...NE flow and slightly cooler but noticeably drier air
advecting across the region into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT through SUNDAY)
The shortwave/front combination will keep storms over area til
around midnight. Some will remain strong to possibly severe with
locally heavy rainfall. Significant and progressive drying out
begins on Fri but mainly felt Sat into Sun. Mildly cooler airmass
from NE-SW so max temps inch down a couple of degrees each day, but
especially over S/Cntrl GA.

THIS EVENING...Likely to categorical POPs with locally heavy rain.
added heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds to grids.

TONIGHT...40-60% N-S mainly eve POP gradient. Some eve storms may be
strong to isold severe. Lows upper 60s N to low 70s coast.

FRIDAY...20-40% N-S pop gradient daytime, 10-30% NE-SW POP gradient.
Expect locally gusty winds in wake of front. Highs around 90, Lows
65 north to low 70s coast.

SATURDAY...10-20% pops. Highs mid 80s coast to upper 80s inland.
Lows low 60s north to near 70 coast.

SUNDAY...no pops. Highs mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Deep layer ridging builds into the region along with a much drier
airmass filtering in the mid to upper levels. The ridge begins to
break down as a trough slides east from the northern Plains into the
Mid-West. The axis of an east to west surface ridge will remain
north of our CWA through most of the extended period providing a
northeast to east low level flow. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
is possible each day from either the panhandle or east coast sea
breezes but should not be enough to mention in zones. Will only have
silent 10% PoPs in grids. High temperatures will be near seasonal
levels while min temps drop into the lower to mid 60s most areas at
least through Tuesday before rebounding back to around 70 by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...thru 18z
Brief MVFR and lcl IFR cigs/vsbys expected around any stronger
storms and heavy showers thru 04z. MVFR cigs/vsbys possible toward
sunrise all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through most of the TAF period.  Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible 16z-18z Fri with brief MVFR vsbys/cigs mainly ABY/TLH/VLD.
&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will begin to increase late tonight and Friday as a
strong area of high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS. East
winds and seas should occasionally reach exercise caution levels
this Sat night, especially well offshore and during the late night
and early morning hours. the Atlantic high will weaken beginning
Sunday with winds falling below exercise caution levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next few days. Much drier air will
arrive for the weekend and we will have to monitor minimum relative
humidity values closely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  91  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10  10
Panama City   72  89  73  85  69 /  40  40  30  20  10
Dothan        69  91  66  88  63 /  50  20  10  10  10
Albany        69  89  66  87  62 /  60  20  10  10   0
Valdosta      67  91  65  87  63 /  60  20  10  10  10
Cross City    68  90  65  89  64 /  60  40  10  20  10
Apalachicola  71  87  67  87  70 /  40  40  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

BLOCK/HARRIGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
508 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150915-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
508 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 /408 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
NORTH FLORIDA. THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE. ALMOST NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAVANA                  30.62N 84.42W
06/14/2012                   GADSDEN            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 TREES FELLED BY DOWNBURST IN HAVANA.

&&

GOULD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E PUTNEY              31.48N 84.02W
06/14/2012                   DOUGHERTY          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            2 TREES FELLLED BY DOWNBURST.

&&

GOULD