Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012

.UPDATE...
Upper level analysis shows the mean northern stream flow confined
to the northern third of the country, with ridging building in
across the Southern Plains, and broad troughiness across the
southeastern part of the country. Embedded within the weak
troughing is a weak upper low centered over Louisiana. At the
surface, and closer to home, we reside between a surface ridge to
our north which covers much of the eastern U.S., and a high
pressure center located in the central GOMEX. In between these two
features exists a weak surface low positioned just offshore of our
Florida Panhandle waters. This surface feature will do little as
far as developing convection inland. It may be responsible for a
few showers near the coast during the first part of the day.
Primarily, it will provide us with a slightly enhanced
southeasterly flow regime, or Seabreeze Regime 6. This would favor
the highest PoPs across north Florida along the Gulf Coast
Seabreeze Fronts, and eventually a lesser influence from the
Atlantic Seabreeze Front. Additionally, a frontal boundary
approaching from the northeast will aid in the development of
thunderstorms this afternoon across our south Georgia counties.

As for the potential for severe thunderstorms, widespread severe
weather is not expected. However, there will likely be scattered
strong storms capable of producing gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
along with small hail. As always during the summertime, an isolated
severe thunderstorm is always a possibility, with the main threat
being damaging winds around 60 mph.

Temperatures will remain near average both today and tonight, with
rain chances tapering off quickly after the midnight hour.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the TAF. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon at all sites,
primarily inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Morning Obs shows light winds and low seas and this should continue
into this aftn. Winds and seas will begin to increase late tonight
and Friday as a strong area of high pressure builds across the
eastern CONUS. Winds and seas may occasionally reach exercise
caution levels this weekend, especially during the late night and
early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  69  91  66  90 /  70  60  20  10  10
Panama City   85  74  89  73  86 /  50  40  30  20  10
Dothan        91  70  91  66  89 /  40  40  20  10  10
Albany        91  70  89  66  88 /  30  60  10  10  10
Valdosta      90  68  91  65  88 /  70  60  20  10  10
Cross City    90  69  90  65  90 /  70  60  30  10  20
Apalachicola  84  72  87  67  87 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Marine...Block
Update/Aviation...Harrigan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
508 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150915-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
508 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 /408 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
NORTH FLORIDA. THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE. ALMOST NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER