Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The 12z TAE sounding indicated a substantial amount of instability
for the early morning hours with MLCAPE already around 2500 j/kg.
This is likely a byproduct of the extremely moist low-levels of
the atmosphere - with 0-750m mixing ratios on the order of 17-19
g/kg. As a result of the deep moist layer near the surface, it
seems unlikely that dewpoints will decrease much during the day
even with typical diurnal mixing. Conservatively modifying the 12z
sounding for a surface T/Td of 89/73 yields about 3000 j/kg of
CAPE for the afternoon hours. This suggests that we could have
some vigorous updrafts (and downdrafts) in thunderstorms today,
especially with considerably less cloud debris than this time
yesterday morning. Severe downburst parameters look to be in
favorable ranges; in fact the WMSI on the 12z sounding was already
in excess of 80 - a value that tends to be correlated with 50kt
surface wind gusts in thunderstorm downbursts. Despite this,
locally generated severe weather probabilities derived from
convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance is only around 5-10%
today. Therefore, we think there could be some isolated 50kt wind
gusts today in a few of the stronger storms, but widespread severe
weather still seems unlikely. Gusty winds and heavy rain wording
were added to the forecast. We will tweak the HWO to highlight the
severe threat a bit more.

The other main decision was on whether or not to keep the Flash
Flood Watch going. Given that there is still a fair amount of
runoff occurring in the area of Tift County from extremely heavy
overnight rains, and that gridded FFG is very low, we opted to
keep the FFA going until 00z. Any additional rainfall would be
likely to lead to more flooding. Regarding expanding the watch:
that was not done at this time, although it certainly wouldn't be
impossible to get some training echoes and isolated flooding
today. PWATs are still quite high (over 2 inches). However, the
additional mid-level drying over the past 24 hours makes it more
likely that thunderstorms will produce more vigorous outflow
today, which could keep them from being anchored in one spot for
an extended period of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
Low/mid level vort max will exit the local area to the east
tonight. This will likely take away the support for organized
shower and thunderstorm development overnight tonight into
Thursday morning. Thursday's convection will likely be dominated
by the seabreeze circulation, any surface troughs that may still
be rotating around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge,
and the eastern US trough. PWATs will be on the rise again, back
over 2 inches, but warm cloud depths look to decrease a bit
compared to recent days. Early indications are that we will return
to a slightly more typical summertime pattern on Thursday (albeit
enhanced) with the threat for any sort of flash flooding likely
dissipated. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds will
be possible in the strongest storms.

On Friday, another shortwave is forecast to rotate through the
eastern US trough and support the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the shortwave axis. This will likely favor
more widespread convection across the northwestern half of our
forecast area with more scattered convection southeast. Similar to
Thursday, severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds will be
possible in the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
At the upper levels a low will be diving out of central Canada into
the Ohio river Valley. An associated surface trof will be
continuing through our forecast area through Saturday afternoon
enhancing our rain chances. Both the EURO and GFS are in fairly
good agreement on the timing. By Sunday and Monday we will return
to a more typical summertime patter. However by Tuesday rain
chances begin to rebound again as moisture arrives from a stalled
surface trof over the Gulf. Temps will be at or slightly below
climo through the extended due to increased clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Wednesday]...
Conditions have broken out to VFR over Florida Panhandle and SE
Alabama this morning. However MVFR conditions continue to linger
across SW Georgia in areas of rainfall over SW Georgia affecting
KABY and KVLD. Additional lines of thunderstorms and showers are
expected to develop again today affecting all Aerodromes.

&&

.MARINE...
Orange Beach, AL buoy observations over the past few hours
suggests that perhaps some 1.5 foot swell (10-11s period) is
reaching the Alabama coast, as well as the far western Florida
Panhandle. With buoy 42039 out of operation, and 42036 (offshore
of Apalachicola) not really reporting much swell, there appears to
be a gradient in the approaching swell somewhere in our area.
Since the swell from TS Ernesto is not affecting our eastern
offshore buoy, the current distribution of the rip current risks
seems appropriate: High Risk for Walton, Bay, and Gulf, and
Moderate for Franklin. Despite the fact that swell is unlikely to
generate enough surf to warrant a High Surf Advisory, even small
swell groups can substantially increase rip current risk. In fact,
by Thursday and Friday, we seem to have a similar setup to the
July 21st rip current event in terms of multiple wave groups that
created intersecting wave crests. On that day, the multiple wave
groups created much more dangerous rip currents than beach
conditions would have otherwise indicated. The WW3 indicates
2-3ft wind-waves approaching from the west, and the 1.5ft swell
from Ernesto approaching from the south. If this still looks to be
the case on the new WaveWatch models this afternoon, the high rip
current risk may be extended into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY [Through 12Z Thursday]...
 * SW GEORGIA: Flash flooding with 8 to 11 inches of rainfall
   occurred over eastern portions of SW Georgia last night
   affecting Irwin, Tift, Berrien and Colquitt Counties. Many
   reports of flooding in and around Tifton. An Areal Flood
   warning was issued to cover continued run-off related flooding
   in this area for the next 6 hours.

 * SE ALABAMA: Minor River flooding is forecast on the
   Choctawhatchee River near Geneva as heavy rainfall from last
   Monday night continues to route downstream. Creeks and streams
   near the heaviest rainfall near Enterprise, AL have all crested
   however flows downstream on the Choctawhatchee are still rises.

 * FL PANHANDLE: The possibility of minor flooding exists on the
   Choctawhatchee River at Caryville later this week as runoff is
   routed downstream from SE Alabama. A River Flood Watch has been
   issued for Caryville. Further downstream, attenuation to the
   routed flows is expected to keep Bruce below flood stage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A generally wet and disturbed weather pattern will continue
across the Tri-State area for the rest of the week. This will keep
afternoon relative humidities well above critical thresholds
through the period.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk of Rip Currents for coastal portions of Walton-Bay-
     and Gulf Counties.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT this evening for Turner-Tift-
     Ben Hill-Irwin-and Berrien Counties.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Gould/Walsh
AVIATION...Lanier
MARINE...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Lanier
FIRE WEATHER...Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-090200-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 /1035 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT...THE
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEACHES. AN
ISOLATED WATERSPOUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COASTLLINE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO REPORT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT MAY BE EXPERIENCED AS
SOON AS SAFELY POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08/DH

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