Areal Flood Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
537 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The upper level pattern has modified a bit since this time
yesterday. Deep layer ridging still exists across the western half
of the country, but has been nudged west out of the Mississippi
Valley by the shortwave trough across the eastern half of the
country. At the surface, the extremely wet pattern continues for
the southeast. A weak tropical wave will continue to provide low
level convergence (primarily across southern Georgia and the
southeast Big Bend of Florida) this afternoon. Aided by upper
level synoptic support, expect a wide coverage of storms this
afternoon.

Flash flooding is ongoing across portions of Tift and likely Irwin
counties this morning. Rain rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches
per hour have been realized in the heaviest showers and estimates
are between 5 and 6 inches over the past 6 hours in isolated
locations. For today, moisture will gradually be on the decrease
as drier air moves in from the west. However, PWATs are expected
to remain above 2 inches for most of the day along and east of a
line from Albany south to Panama City. In addition, warm cloud
depths between 13 and 14 kft in the same locations will continue
to support the development of tropical showers and thunderstorms
through the day today. MBE vector analysis would suggest that
individual cells within the convergent band of showers and storms
will continue to be somewhat slow moving through at least the
morning hours. Additionally, boundary parallel mean low layer
winds would suggest the training potential to continue through the
afternoon. Warming cloud tops via IR imagery would suggest that
rain rates will begin to diminish over the next couple of hours,
however, based on what seems to be reliable radar data, rain rates
are on the rise once again across portions of Turner and Tift
counties. So this threat will have to be monitored over the next
several hours. Nonetheless, expect the flash flood threat to
continue through at least the first part of the morning. Later in
the day, as drier air moves in, expect rain rates to begin to
diminish and this is supported by local hires guidance. That being
said, the damage has already been done across parts of Tift and
likely Irwin counties and it won't take much rain to continue the
flooding threat. In general, expect widespread 1 to 2 inches
across portions of south Georgia and the southeast Big Bend of
Florida this afternoon, with locally higher amounts between 2 to 4
inches. This would suggest the threat for widespread flash
flooding to be much less than yesterday. Elsewhere, expect the low
level wave and upper support to enhance the seabreeze circulation
this afternoon across portions of north Florida. Storms that
develop in these areas could produce gusty winds at times, but
look to remain below severe levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
Low/mid level vort max will exit the local area to the east
tonight. This will likely take away the support for organized
shower and thunderstorm development overnight tonight into
Thursday morning. Thursday's convection will likely be dominated
by the seabreeze circulation, any surface troughs that may still
be rotating around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge,
and the eastern US trough. PWATs will be on the rise again, back over 2
inches, but warm cloud depths look to decrease a bit compared to
recent days. Early indications are that we will return to a
slightly more typical summertime pattern on Thursday (albeit
enhanced) with the threat for any sort of flash flooding likely
dissipated. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds will
be possible in the strongest storms.

On Friday, another shortwave is forecast to rotate through the
eastern US trough and support the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the shortwave axis. This will likely favor
more widespread convection across the northwestern half of our
forecast area with more scattered convection southeast. Similar to
Thursday, severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds will be
possible in the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
At the upper levels a low will be diving out of central Canada into
the Ohio river Valley. An associated surface trof will be
continuing through our forecast area through Saturday afternoon
enhancing our rain chances. Both the EURO and GFS are in fairly
good agreement on the timing. By Sunday and Monday we will return
to a more typical summertime patter. However by Tuesday rain
chances begin to rebound again as moisture arrives from a stalled
surface trof over the Gulf. Temps will be at or slightly below
climo through the extended due to increased clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Wednesday]...
A trof is lingering in the area associated with the remnants of a
tropical wave causing showers, lowered ceilings and reduced vis.
Ample low level moisture from Monday's rainfall will allow some
terminals to reach ceilings below 1000ft and vis around 1 mile.
Rainy conditions tomorrow will keep terminals under the threat of
seeing periods of reduced cigs and vis.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally remain rather light through the short and
extended range forecast under the influence of high pressure.
However, seas are forecast to increase today as a result of
increasing swell generated by Hurricane Ernesto in the southern
Gulf. Although seas will elevate, they should remain below
cautionary levels through the period. Seas will subside once again
by Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening FOR coastal
     Walton...Bay...and Gulf counties.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Turner...Ben
     Hill...Irwin...Tift...and Berrien counties.

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Thursday FOR all of
     southeast Alabama.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Walsh/Gould
AVIATION...Walsh/Goulf
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh/Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-090200-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
611 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 /511 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

* FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
* HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY.
* WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
  THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
* THE FLOODING THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO REPORT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT MAY BE EXPERIENCED AS
SOON AS SAFELY POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
514 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TIFTON                  31.45N 83.51W
08/08/2012                   TIFT               GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CONFIRMED WATER DAMAGE TO THE SHONEYS RESTAURANT IN
            TIFTON.

&&

GOULD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N GLADYS              31.53N 83.24W
08/08/2012                   IRWIN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            VERY HIGH WATER WASHING OVER HWY 129 IN SOUTHERN IRWIN
            COUNTY.

&&

GOULD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S UNIONVILLE          31.42N 83.51W
08/08/2012                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXIT 59 OFF OF I75 IS CLOSED. I75 REMAINS OPEN.

&&

HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
656 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TIFTON                  31.45N 83.51W
08/08/2012                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING ONGOING IN TIFTON. SEVERAL AREA ROADS ARE
            ALREADY CLOSED...AND THE BOTTOM FLOOR OF THE RAMADA INN
            IS BEING EVACUATED DUE TO WATER ENTERING THE HOTEL.

0455 AM     FLOOD            3 N GLADYS              31.51N 83.24W
08/08/2012                   IRWIN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER REPORTED ACROSS HWY 129 IN SOUTHERN IRWIN
            COUNTY.

0510 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TIFTON                  31.45N 83.51W
08/08/2012                   TIFT               GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CONFIRMED WATER DAMAGE TO THE SHONEYS RESTAURANT IN
            TIFTON.

0619 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N GLADYS              31.53N 83.24W
08/08/2012                   IRWIN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            VERY HIGH WATER WASHING OVER HWY 129 IN SOUTHERN IRWIN
            COUNTY.

0619 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ENIGMA                  31.41N 83.33W
08/08/2012                   BERRIEN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOBBS WALKER ROAD AND FIRE TOWER ROAD HAVE BEEN CLOSED
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING IN ENIGMA.

0628 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S UNIONVILLE          31.42N 83.51W
08/08/2012                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXIT 59 OFF OF I75 IS CLOSED. I75 REMAINS OPEN.

&&

GOULD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE OCILLA             31.63N 83.21W
08/08/2012  M7.00 INCH       IRWIN              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
            HOURS MEASURED ON TWO FARMS ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
            OCILLA.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE UNIONVILLE        31.46N 83.42W
08/08/2012  E11.00 INCH      TIFT               GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER GA-TF-6 EAST OF TIFTON REPORTED AT
            LEAST 11 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE RAIN
            GAUGE WAS COMPLETELY FULL AND RUNNING OVER.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE TIFTON             31.47N 83.49W
08/08/2012  M9.65 INCH       TIFT               GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER GA-TF-3 REPORTED A 24 HOUR RAINFALL
            TOTAL OF 9.65 INCHES.

&&

DVD