Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 677

December 9, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 9, 2012, 2:10 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 9, 2012, 2:10 PM CST (20:10 UTC)
Expired
Dec 9, 2012, 11:00 PM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 73 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Union County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 9, 2:12 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKIzard, Sharp48 min
Dec 9, 2:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Van Buren46 min
Dec 9, 2:54 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKSharp36 min
Dec 9, 2:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHButler, Carter, Ripley, Wayne32 min
Dec 9, 3:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLawrence, Randolph40 min
Dec 9, 3:13 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGLawrence, Randolph32 min
Dec 9, 3:16 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHButler, Carter, Ripley, Wayne17 min
Dec 9, 3:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Independence, Stone39 min
Dec 9, 3:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHButler, Wayne30 min
Dec 9, 3:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne29 min
Dec 9, 3:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGGreene, Randolph35 min
Dec 9, 3:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Sharp45 min
Dec 9, 4:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Independence44 min
Dec 9, 4:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner19 min
Dec 9, 4:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson44 min
Dec 9, 4:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Van Buren, White37 min
Dec 9, 4:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson31 min
Dec 9, 5:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Pulaski, White22 min
Dec 9, 5:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Hot Spring, Saline37 min
Dec 9, 5:44 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGClay, Greene99 min
Dec 9, 5:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White29 min
Dec 9, 6:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Grant, Hot Spring, Saline37 min
Dec 9, 6:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Pulaski, Saline52 min
Dec 9, 8:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, St. Francis32 min
Dec 9, 8:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGHaywood, Lauderdale, Tipton23 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-12-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 344 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-12-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 200 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
344 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
445 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

279 
WWUS20 KWNS 092010
SEL7  
SPC WW 092010
ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-100300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       WESTERN KENTUCKY
       SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
       NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL
AR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE EXPECTED.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 8, 10:18 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCConway, Garland, Logan, Montgomery, Perry, Polk and 2 more117 min
Dec 9, 1:46 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Garland, Lee, Lonoke, Monroe and 6 more2 hr
Dec 9, 12:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 41 more2 hr
Dec 9, 5:04 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Columbia, Dallas, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller and 2 more116 min
Dec 9, 5:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark, Cleveland and 9 more6 hr
Dec 9, 5:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 20 more96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2012Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2012Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.