Severe Thunderstorm Warning 496, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN AREAS WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BACKING...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
HENCE THE TORNADO WATCH.

ONCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING STRATIFORM RAIN...WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF...ELEVATED THUNDER.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP RAPIDLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF ITS PASSAGE. BY MORNING...READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH...MID 30S CENTRAL...AND
NEAR 50 SOUTH. THOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEBATABLE...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET/SNOW OR TRANSITION
OVER BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ROUGHLY IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM MURFREESBORO...TO
LITTLE ROCK TO NEWPORT.

WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...
WITH THE UPPER WAVE BEHIND THIS FRONT...UPLIFT WILL BE ENHANCED...
AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. IF THIS PANS OUT...
ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT...LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. MOST LIKELY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A BIT OF A RECOVERY...BEFORE
FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING. MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S OR 40S.

COLDEST NIGHTS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE LONG
TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY. WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE...SHOULD BE NO MAJOR WARMUP OR COOLDOWN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. COLD AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK /BELOW 30 PERCENT/. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FAIRLY RAPID.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  40  21  44 /  60  30   0   0
CAMDEN AR         41  50  25  49 /  90  60   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  35  18  40 /  30  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  23  45 /  50  50   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  42  25  46 /  80  50   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     43  52  28  48 / 100  40   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      33  40  18  46 /  40  40   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  37  19  42 /  30  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        34  42  23  44 /  80  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     39  48  28  45 /  90  50   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  41  19  46 /  30  40   0   0
SEARCY AR         33  41  20  45 /  80  40   0   0
STUTTGART AR      37  45  26  44 /  90  60   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...44 / FIRE WEATHER...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101045-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
300 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE WEATHER EXITING THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. EVEN SO...THE THREAT FOR ANY
WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERAL HOURS OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
AS COLDER AIR SURGES IN. WHILE THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL ARRIVE
AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE EXITS THE STATE...AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM
MURFREESBORO TO LITTLE ROCK TO AUGUSTA MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES
SIMPLY REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE
SYSTEM CLOSE TO A WEEK OUT...IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/224

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