Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588

Issued

Aug 24, 2012, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)

Expired

Aug 25, 2012, 1:00 AM CDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1805Aug 24, 3:58 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1807Aug 24, 7:52 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1808Aug 24, 10:36 PM CDT

437 
WWUS20 KWNS 242220
SEL8  
SPC WW 242220
NDZ000-250600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MINOT NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WARM SECTOR IS SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST THAN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
ESTIMATED.  WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
DEEP...WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SETUP WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.