Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 2, 2012, 11:43 AM CDT for 20 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2012, 11:43 AM CDT (16:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2012, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 31 counties
Aitkin County, MN, Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 80%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 50%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
12 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 12:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Pembina | 31 min |
| Jul 2, 1:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Roseau | 39 min |
| Jul 2, 1:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson | 37 min |
| Jul 2, 3:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Lake of the Woods | 35 min |
| Jul 2, 5:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Norman | 53 min |
| Jul 2, 5:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Clearwater, Mahnomen, Polk | 54 min |
| Jul 2, 6:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk | 65 min |
| Jul 2, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Wadena | 60 min |
| Jul 2, 6:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Hubbard, Otter Tail, Wadena | 57 min |
| Jul 2, 6:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca, Koochiching | 38 min |
| Jul 2, 6:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca, Saint Louis | 39 min |
| Jul 2, 6:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Cass, Itasca | 19 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3219 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 897 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.5
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 10:59 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Itasca, Kittson and 8 more | 91 min |
| Jul 2, 3:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clay and 15 more | 87 min |
| Jul 2, 6:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clay and 21 more | 65 min |
| Jul 2, 6:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clay and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 7:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more | 115 min |
| Jul 2, 1:23 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Burke, Divide, McKenzie, Mountrail, Renville, Ward and 1 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.