Alert archive / New Jersey / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444

July 1, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 1, 2012, 1:35 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2012, 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 40 counties

Capitol Planning Region, CT, Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 2:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Northwest Hills Planning Region	60 min
Jul 1, 2:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen	42 min
Jul 1, 2:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Northwest Hills Planning Region	33 min
Jul 1, 2:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	38 min
Jul 1, 3:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region	44 min
Jul 1, 3:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	41 min
Jul 1, 3:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Capitol Planning Region	39 min
Jul 1, 3:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	50 min
Jul 1, 3:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Sussex, Warren	65 min
Jul 1, 3:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	39 min
Jul 1, 3:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	52 min
Jul 1, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	46 min
Jul 1, 4:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	37 min
Jul 1, 4:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOX	Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region	24 min
Jul 1, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	17 min
Jul 1, 4:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen, Passaic	44 min
Jul 1, 4:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Morris, Sussex, Warren	59 min
Jul 1, 5:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Naugatuck Valley Planning Region	24 min
Jul 1, 5:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	48 min
Jul 1, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Nassau, Suffolk	47 min
Jul 1, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Suffolk	47 min
Jul 1, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	41 min
Jul 1, 6:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Nassau, Suffolk	51 min
Jul 1, 6:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region	44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 254 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 12:11 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		64 min
Jul 1, 3:25 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		95 min
Jul 1, 6:22 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		83 min
Jul 1, 7:22 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford and 4 more	83 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Connecticut, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.