Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415

Issued

Jun 19, 2012, 11:20 PM CDT (04:20 UTC)

Expired

Jun 20, 2012, 3:55 AM CDT

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

50%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

50%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1226Jun 19, 9:12 PM CDT

183 
WWUS20 KWNS 200425
SEL5
SPC WW 200425
MNZ000-SDZ000-201000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
       CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...WW 413...WW 414...

DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG SFC FRONT ACROSS NEB AND SERN
SD REMAINED ISOLATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED MOST LIKELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG INHIBITION AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. LIFT ACROSS THE DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE HAS NOW TRANSITIONED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING EAST FROM WY. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO SUSTAIN ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. RECENT
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE STORM PERSISTENCE AND SOME
ORGANIZATION. WITH AIR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM THE HOT AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR RESIDING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...RESULTING STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND OCCASIONAL STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21020.


...CARBIN

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.