Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Aberdeen, SD

096 
WWUS53 KABR 200505
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1205 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

SDC017-085-200545-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-120620T0545Z/
LYMAN SD-BUFFALO SD-
1205 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1204 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAILWATERS REC AREA AROUND 1210 AM CDT...
  FORT THOMPSON AROUND 1215 AM CDT...
  SHELBY AND LEES CORNER AROUND 1220 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9962 4373 9963 4374 9970 4370 9975
      4371 9980 4417 9947 4401 9891 4393 9893
      4392 9936 4385 9931 4377 9940 4371 9939
      4367 9945 4364 9934 4358 9933 4354 9927
      4349 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 223DEG 28KT 4388 9929
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
DORN

008 
WWUS53 KABR 200532
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

SDC017-085-200545-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-120620T0545Z/
LYMAN SD-BUFFALO SD-
1232 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1227 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF GANN VALLEY...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF BUFFALO
AND SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTIES.

DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH INTO FAR SOUTHERN LYMAN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9962 4373 9963 4374 9970 4370 9975
      4371 9980 4417 9947 4401 9891 4393 9893
      4392 9936 4385 9931 4377 9940 4371 9939
      4367 9945 4364 9934 4358 9933 4354 9927
      4349 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 225DEG 37KT 4397 9893
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
DORN

996 
WWUS53 KABR 200542
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

SDC017-085-200552-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-120620T0545Z/
LYMAN SD-BUFFALO SD-
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUFFALO AND SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT/1145 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING 
INTO LYMAN COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4350 9962 4373 9963 4374 9970 4370 9975
      4371 9980 4417 9947 4401 9891 4393 9893
      4392 9936 4385 9931 4377 9940 4371 9939
      4367 9945 4364 9934 4358 9933 4354 9927
      4349 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 225DEG 37KT 4405 9882

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
710 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 1 AM
CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED PRIMARILY ALONG
SOUTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 20 FROM CARPENTER TO TORONTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG WINDSHEAR
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IN PLACE. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CAPPING TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE...KEEPING
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...IF
THE CAP BREAKS...CONVECTION WOULD BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY GROWING TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO ALL BEING POSSIBLE SEVERE WX TYPES. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL POSE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT
RANGE.

FOR TNT SFC LOW NEAR KMHE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
WEST CENTRAL MN. PER SAT PIX...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS MOVED NORTH OF KHON/KBKX AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR
KATY. DEWPOINTS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE NEAR 70.
MEANWHILE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS BROUGHT VERY WARM AIR NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN CWA WITH H7 TEMPS GREATER THAN +12C OVER MOST OF
THAT REGION. 19Z SPC MESO PAGE INDICATES A WEALTH OF REMAINING
MLCIN TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING
AND CONTINUED CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET CONVECTION TO FIRE. THE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...AND IF THEY CAN GET SFC BASED THEY WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE.

ALSO FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT A NICE AREA OF POST FRONTAL UVM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA...WITH A
FAIRLY DECENT SIZE BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. HOPEFULLY
THIS PROGNOSTICATION WILL HOLD TRUE AND THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN DRY
WILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR WEDNESDAY
MOST OF THE RAIN PRESSES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WITH DIABATIC
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY GET SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MLCAPE. THE SAME COULD
HAPPEN FOR THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A
SFC LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST AND INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...AND INTO WISCONSIN. THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING OUT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA /SOUTH OF KATY/...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE LOW VFR CIGS /3500 TO
5000FT AGL/ CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS WITH MVFR CIGS /1500 TO 3000FT
AGL/...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT THE
KATY TERMINAL FROM NOW THROUGH APPX 05Z TONIGHT. THEN...NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE KPIR...KABR AND KATY
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-200915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012 /311 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT...AGAIN FOR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1017 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ039-200400-
TRAVERSE-
1017 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TRAVERSE COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1011 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLIS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF WHEATON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE DUMONT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS AROUND
40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

DORN