Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403

Issued

Jun 16, 2012, 8:23 PM CDT (01:23 UTC)

Expired

Jun 16, 2012, 11:41 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

40%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1190Jun 16, 5:36 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1191Jun 16, 6:10 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1193Jun 16, 7:58 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1194Jun 16, 10:30 PM CDT

341 
WWUS20 KWNS 170127
SEL3
SPC WW 170127
ILZ000-MOZ000-170700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL ILLINOIS
       EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MATTOON
ILLINOIS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 402...

DISCUSSION...LIFT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE STL AREA AND INTO CNTRL IL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WARMED CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ONLY DROPPING UNDER 90F IN THE LAST
HOUR. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING MCS...AT LEAST
A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD ENSUE AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF ABOUT 40-50 KT
MAY ALSO AID OCCASIONALLY BETTER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...EITHER AHEAD
OF OR EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS. WHEN COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS CONVECTION COULD POSE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...CARBIN

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.