Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249

May 5, 201228 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 5, 2012, 2:38 PM EDT for 28 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 5, 2012, 2:38 PM EDT (18:38 UTC)
Expired
May 5, 2012, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 36 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 6:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHJohnston, Wayne, Wilson67 min
May 5, 7:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMHXDuplin, Greene, Lenoir27 min
May 5, 8:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMHXCraven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow and 1 more45 min
May 5, 8:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMFlorence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg57 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 918 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
918 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
976 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

148 
WWUS20 KWNS 051836
SEL9
SPC WW 051836
NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
       NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NEW
BERN NORTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.  AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME HOT
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 1:30 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Bertie, Bladen, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland and 28 more2 hr
May 5, 6:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 22 more55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Carolina, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.