Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Raleigh, NC

745 
WWUS52 KRAH 052309
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCC101-191-195-060000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-120506T0000Z/
WILSON NC-JOHNSTON NC-WAYNE NC-
709 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR WAYNE...EASTERN JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMIT TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANTHAM...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD TO 12
MILES WEST OF MOUNT OLIVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... MICRO...PRINCETON...
KENLY...SIMS...NAHUNTA...MAR-MAC...MOUNT OLIVE...LUCAMA...BROGDEN...
PIKEVILLE...FREMONT...NEW HOPE...GOLDSBORO...BLACK CREEK...WILSON...
WILLBANKS...STANTONSBURG...SARATOGA...ELM CITY...WALNUT CREEK...SEVEN
SPRINGS...EUREKA AND ELROY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 93 AND 121.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY 
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY 
FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF 
THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS 
TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU 
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL 
FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...UNDERPASSES AND OTHER AREAS 
OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. 
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING... 
ESPECIALLY ON INTERSTATE 95.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782 3518 7783
      3515 7788 3515 7789 3519 7801 3518 7816
      3521 7817 3522 7824 3529 7831 3528 7838
      3578 7833 3580 7828 3580 7825 3573 7820
      3586 7781 3584 7777 3574 7773 3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 272DEG 18KT 3566 7823 3525 7827

$$

VINCENT

175 
WWUS52 KRAH 052331
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCC101-191-195-060000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-120506T0000Z/
WILSON NC-JOHNSTON NC-WAYNE NC-
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR WAYNE...EASTERN JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KENLY TO MOUNT OLIVE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD TO MOUNT OLIVE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... NAHUNTA...MAR-MAC...
LUCAMA...BROGDEN...PIKEVILLE...FREMONT...NEW HOPE...GOLDSBORO...BLACK
CREEK...WILSON...WILLBANKS...STANTONSBURG...SARATOGA...ELM CITY...
WALNUT CREEK...SEVEN SPRINGS...EUREKA AND ELROY.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY 
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY 
FROM THE WINDOWS. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A 
VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH 
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL 
FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...UNDERPASSES AND OTHER AREAS 
OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. 
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782 3518 7783
      3515 7790 3519 7801 3518 7816 3521 7817
      3522 7824 3529 7831 3569 7827 3574 7825
      3573 7820 3586 7781 3584 7777 3574 7773
      3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 272DEG 16KT 3561 7806 3517 7812

$$

VINCENT

226 
WWUS52 KRAH 052353
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCC101-060003-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-120506T0000Z/
JOHNSTON NC-
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF JOHNSTON 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 98 AND 107.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3542 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7801 3518 7816
      3531 7817 3538 7815 3542 7816 3558 7807
      3580 7801 3586 7781 3584 7777 3574 7773
      3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 277DEG 26KT 3557 7784 3513 7790

$$

NCC191-195-060000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-120506T0000Z/
WILSON NC-WAYNE NC-
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EUREKA TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEVEN
SPRINGS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF FARMVILLE
TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT OLIVE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WALNUT CREEK...
STANTONSBURG...WILLBANKS AND SARATOGA.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3542 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7801 3518 7816
      3531 7817 3538 7815 3542 7816 3558 7807
      3580 7801 3586 7781 3584 7777 3574 7773
      3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 277DEG 26KT 3557 7784 3513 7790

$$

VINCENT

987 
WWUS52 KRAH 060000
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCC191-195-060009-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-120506T0000Z/
WILSON NC-WAYNE NC-
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 800 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF WAYNE AND 
WILSON COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY 
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR 
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3542 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7801 3518 7816
      3531 7817 3538 7815 3542 7816 3558 7807
      3580 7801 3586 7781 3584 7777 3574 7773
      3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 277DEG 26KT 3556 7779 3512 7785

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
627 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 627 PM SATURDAY...

THE SEVERE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR RALEIGH
SOUTH AND EAST TO FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO. AN MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CONTINUED TO TRACK ESE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS OF 620 PM. THE MCV WAS LOCATED BY RADAR OVER
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY MOVING ESE AT 25KT. THE MCV WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON AREA BY MID-EVENING.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRACK OF THE MCV... AND SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOORE COUNTY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CUMBERLAND INTO
JOHNSTON AND SAMPSON COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. MLCAPES
WERE GENERALLY AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG FROM FAY TO GSB. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PEAKING NOW AS THE MCV TRACKS NEARBY. THEREFORE... THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAINLY SE OF
RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH MID EVENING.

ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV... 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 INCH POSSIBLE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY
OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIANGLE AREA UNTIL THE VORT PASSES BY 900
PM.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TRIAD REGION WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE MESO-LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV. -BADGETT

FOR SUNDAY MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND THE LOCATION OF THE
MESO-LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT A LARGELY DRY DAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A GREAT DEAL AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...RIGHT
AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SKIES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTH AND SW BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN ALOFT FROM THE NNW. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NNE PRODUCING NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY A DRY NNW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS KEEPS THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER MUCH MORE MOIST THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF... RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
STABLE POOL. BUT BASED ON THE DIFFLUENT SURFACE FLOW... THE COOL
CHARACTER AND WEAKNESS OF THE INCOMING HIGH... AND THE FAR-SOUTH
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW... THIS APPEARS OVERDONE AND
WILL HAVE FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT MOST WITH PERHAPS MORE HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF MOIST POCKET ON THE 330K
SURFACE. LOWS 55-60.

FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH WARM/STABLE AIR ALOFT
(DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVERHEAD) AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING CENTERED JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC/NE COAST
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC. WITH THE SLOWLY VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD... THE INCREASING
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL IN
ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH
THE ONSET OF HEATING/MIXING. BASED ON BELOW-NORMAL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE... HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO 73-78. SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO VEER AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LOWEST 2 KM ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE EXITING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE. ANTICIPATE INCREASING STRATUS
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. LOWS 55-60.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST WITH
IMPROVING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT
THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPLIT
WITH THE SOUTHERN END CLOSING OFF OVER THE FAR SW CONUS WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER... ITS
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS
ITS RIDGE STEADILY LOSES ITS GRIP ON CENTRAL NC. A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY (OUT AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING
WRN US TROUGH) AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THIS WAVE'S APPROACH
COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
TO ITS WEST WILL HELP MOISTEN AND SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN. BUT
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT HOLDS TO OUR WNW...
WAITING FOR THE MID LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ONE COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH THE MODELS DEVELOP ALONG THE
OLD SHEAR ZONE OVER OR JUST OFF THE GA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS
ALLOWS THIS FEATURE TO EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED ESE BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND DEEPER TROUGH... WHILE THE NAM INSTEAD PULLS
IT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN EITHER SOLUTION... BUT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT... THE
COASTAL PLAIN MAY SEE GREATER STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW THOUGH... WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE TRIAD AND LESSER
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS 77-81 WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING... THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE LEAD
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH... WEAK LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL MASS
CONVERGENCE... AND THE DELAY IN SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC FORCING UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY... WILL KEEP POPS AS LOW CHANCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MILD LOWS OF 62-66... A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE BULK OF THE PREFRONTAL DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCLUDING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED WEDNESDAY... AND LIFT SHOULD
BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER... CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN... SO WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN AND KEEP A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LATE-AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM/MUGGY WITH HIGHS 75-80. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. LOWS 51-57 WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT ENE ON FRIDAY WITH
RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... DRY WEATHER... AND TEMPS
3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE
MIDWEEK LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY/SATURDAY... HOWEVER THIS SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGING... AS A MODIFYING SURFACE AIR MASS ALLOWS
OUR TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MOST NOTABLY AT
STATIONS KFAY AND KRWI WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS SET
UP. AT THE CURRENT TIME KRDU IS EXPERIENCING A THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FURTHER TO THE WEST KINT
AND KGSO ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
POPUP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL BECOME A PROBLEM AS CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR AFTER 6Z BEFORE
CEILINGS RETREAT BACK TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE
LEFT OUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATION OVERNIGHT 5-10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM:

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY ON MONDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCZ026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061845-
FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-
HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
645 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ008>011-025-040-073>076-083-084-061845-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
645 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MID-EVENING. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
527 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCZ075-077-086-088-052215-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-HOKE-MOORE-
527 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...MOORE...
CUMBERLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VASS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PINEVIEW...POPE
AFB...SPRING LAKE...AND...FORT BRAGG.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 7937 3535 7926 3534 7924 3533 7923
      3531 7918 3532 7916 3528 7881 3497 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 285DEG 20KT 3526 7923

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCZ088-052245-
CUMBERLAND-
607 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 607 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
POPE AFB...OR ABOUT OVER FORT BRAGG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BONNIE DOONE...
FAYETTEVILLE...EASTOVER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 49 AND 65.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 7909 3513 7911 3519 7909 3522 7893
      3524 7887 3521 7863 3520 7865 3517 7863
      3512 7865 3512 7864 3509 7867 3504 7865
      3496 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 285DEG 17KT 3516 7898

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
613 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPE AFB                35.18N  79.03W
05/05/2012  M44 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            POPE AFB REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 44 MPH AT 601 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200201

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
626 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCZ028-042-043-078-052330-
EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WAYNE-WILSON-
626 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAYNE...JOHNSTON...WILSON
AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FOUR OAKS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SMITHFIELD...SELMA...
PINE LEVEL...MICRO...PRINCETON...NAHUNTA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 312 AND 334...AND
INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 79 AND 121.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3542 7782 3537 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3519 7816 3521 7817 3522 7824
      3529 7831 3526 7841 3527 7849 3537 7857
      3562 7858 3571 7846 3577 7835 3577 7824
      3573 7820 3581 7798 3577 7765 3568 7764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 267DEG 25KT 3549 7844

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
628 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     FT BRAGG SIMMONS AAF    35.14N  78.93W
05/05/2012  M47 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            FORT BRAGG REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 47 MPH AT 612
            PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200202

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

NCZ088-089-052330-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
641 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 641 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTOVER...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE AUTRYVILLE...
SALEMBURG...AND CLINTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 7816 3484 7823 3501 7884 3523 7877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 287DEG 24KT 3510 7868

VINCENT