Mesoscale Discussion 980

Issued

May 30, 2012, 1:05 PM CDT (18:05 UTC)

Expired

May 30, 2012, 2:30 PM CDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

60%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323May 30, 4:00 PM CDT

669 
ACUS11 KWNS 301805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301805 
KSZ000-301930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301805Z - 301930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WCNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE STARTING TO INITIATE IN WCNTRL KS LOCATED
ALONG A MOISTURE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE CELL IN NESS COUNTY IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING
ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL. THE THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
RUSSELL KS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS
WEAKENING MAINLY FROM GARDEN CITY KS NWD TO AROUND OAKLEY KS. THE
WEAKENING CAP IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND ERN CO MOVES INTO
WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL INITIATE IN WRN KS BETWEEN 20Z TO 21Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39219983 39180141 38720180 37590142 37309877 37619820
            38159780 38819778 39059853 39219983

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.