Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 918
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2012, 9:35 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2012, 9:35 PM CDT (02:35 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2012, 11:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Clark County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS, Beaver County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1172 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -43 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2320 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
603
ACUS11 KWNS 270236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270235
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-270400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS THROUGH THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270235Z - 270400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING INTO SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES HAVE
SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE RISK UNTIL 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE A
DECREASING TREND IS ESTABLISHED. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE...A
WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ALONG A CONSOLIDATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SWRN KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. SLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 50 KT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE STORMS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL/HART.. 05/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 37120140 39020120 39260010 38269907 36799996 36310130
37120140SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 3:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 22 more | 95 min |
| May 27, 3:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 28 more | 8 hr |
| May 27, 6:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 17 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.