Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 899
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2012, 9:18 PM EDT for 11 counties in New York. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 25, 2012, 9:18 PM EDT (01:18 UTC)
- Expired
- May 25, 2012, 11:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 376 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -45 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 824 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 268 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
445
ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260118
NYZ000-260315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260118Z - 260315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS QUEBEC SHOULD INITIATE
TSTMS AS IN MOVES INTO NRN NY. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR
30 KTS /BOTH VALUES COMPARE WELL TO THE ALB AND BUF 00Z SOUNDINGS/.
THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A VERY LOW SEVERE THREAT. A FEW OTHER
FACTORS...INCLUDING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALSO
SUGGEST THAT STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED. MOST LIKELY STORM MODE
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUTLICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL HAIL AND A FEW NON-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE
OF SEVERE TSTMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44147627 44647558 44917463 44817398 44607359 44147376
43597434 43157516 42597640 42687698 43097722 43667620
43897624 44147627SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 1:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Richmond and 2 more | 88 min |
| May 26, 2:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Richmond and 2 more | 37 min |
| May 26, 2:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 4 more | 6 hr |
| May 26, 6:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond and 3 more | 56 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.