Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 867

May 22, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2012, 1:06 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2012, 1:06 PM MDT (19:06 UTC)
Expired
May 22, 2012, 2:30 PM MDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Baca County, CO, Grant County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Harding County, NM, Union County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1865 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

682 
ACUS11 KWNS 221907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221906
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221906Z - 222030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO...NERN
NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD E-SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF SWRN KS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM INTO
SERN CO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 19Z NEAR 90F. THIS IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSEQUENT
DEEPENING OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS. AS THE HIGH BASED CU ENCOUNTERS
SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE /LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...AS DEPICTED IN 16Z HRRR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STORMS WILL OCCUR IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AND
STRONGLY VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35840428 37070416 37890313 37860168 37280041 36610019
            35740087 35170304 35840428

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 21, 6:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCurry, Quay95 min
May 21, 8:33 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Hale, Hockley, Lamb and 3 more87 min
May 22, 4:10 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.