Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 862

May 21, 2012Curry County, Quay County, New Mexico; 9 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2012, 6:40 PM MDT for Curry County, Quay County, New Mexico; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 21, 2012, 6:40 PM MDT (00:40 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2012, 8:15 PM MDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Curry County, NM, Quay County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 118 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
118 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
231 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

913 
ACUS11 KWNS 220041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220040
TXZ000-NMZ000-220215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287...

VALID 220040Z - 220215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES NEAR CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR A
NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY PROPAGATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS APPEAR LIKELY TO
MERGE SHORTLY NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF TUCUMCARI...CONTRIBUTING TO
FURTHER STORM CONSOLIDATION.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
PROBABLY WILL BE SUSTAINED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA BOUNDED BY TUCUMCARI/CLOVIS AND
DALHART BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z...IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.  IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BEFORE
THE ONSET OF MORE SURFACE COOLING LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS THROUGH STORM DISSIPATION.

..KERR.. 05/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36270341 36370280 35640214 34590167 34130193 33940308
            34380386 35140361 36270341

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 1:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarding, Union84 min
May 21, 8:33 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Hale, Hockley, Lamb and 3 more87 min
May 22, 4:10 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.