Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 841

May 19, 201213 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 19, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT for 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 30 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 19, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC)
Expired
May 19, 2012, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
30 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 450 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 330 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
450 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-768 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1247 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
330 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
445 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

723 
ACUS11 KWNS 192331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192330
OKZ000-TXZ000-200000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

VALID 192330Z - 200000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 282 THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT E-SEWD WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING DMGG
WIND/HAIL THREAT EXPECTED BEYOND SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG A SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM 40 WNW CSM TO 10 NE AVK AS OF 23Z. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINING
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TSTM CLUSTER
WILL PROPAGATE E-SEWD LATER THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
AND SOUNDINGS FROM EARLIER TODAY SUGGEST A STRONGER CAPPING
INVERSION IS IN PLACE WITH EWD EXTENT...WHICH ALONG WITH DIURNAL
COOLING EFFECTS...SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCED DMGG WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. A THREAT FOR HAIL COULD PERSIST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.

..ROGERS.. 05/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35339811 35330022 35700005 36999880 36999694 35339811

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 2:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Major, Woods, Woodward84 min
May 19, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer and 12 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.