Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 825

May 16, 201228 counties in New York; 4 counties in Pennsylvania; 11 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2012, 3:37 PM EDT for 28 counties in New York; 4 counties in Pennsylvania; 11 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2012, 3:37 PM EDT (19:37 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2012, 5:30 PM EDT
In force
113 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties

Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 304 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 16 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
304 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
484 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

678 
ACUS11 KWNS 161937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161937 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280...

VALID 161937Z - 162130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OVER CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM E CNTRL NY INTO VT WITH LIKELY HAIL AND
WIND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAPID DRYING WITH DEWPOINTS NOW
IN THE MID 40S F ACROSS NRN PA AND S CNTRL NY. FARTHER E...THE 18Z
ALB SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F ON AVERAGE. MLCAPE WAS
NEAR 1000 J/KG USING THIS SOUNDING...A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

AREAS OF HEATING WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND
SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 05/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   41787725 42467691 43027599 44177481 45037402 45077239
            44907202 44267222 43287253 42387333 41897365 41677450
            41587499 41427608 41597687 41787725

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 12:27 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Columbia and 22 more2 hr
May 16, 1:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Columbia and 24 more9 hr
May 16, 6:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Rensselaer84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.