Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 815
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2012, 1:07 PM EDT for 10 counties in Georgia; 12 counties in North Carolina; 40 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2012, 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2012, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 62 counties
Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Hart County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Warren County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Allendale County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1682 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 555 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
411
ACUS11 KWNS 151707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151707
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-151900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...SRN NC...NERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151707Z - 151900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF TOWERING CU OVER W CNTRL
SC NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. TALL STORMS CAPABLE OF
1.00 - 1.75 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH DOWNBURSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ORGANIZED WIND
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE LARGE SCALE.
..JEWELL/HART.. 05/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33067939 32788141 33158257 33698297 34508314 35158249
35248179 35298059 35297939 35077842 34277787 33877824
33617879 33067939SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Chatham, Columbia and 11 more | 7 hr |
| May 15, 3:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Elbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Rabun, Stephens | 7 hr |
| May 15, 5:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brantley, Camden, Charlton | 97 min |
| May 15, 6:30 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Chatham, Columbia and 16 more | 90 min |
| May 15, 2:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Burke, Caldwell, Caswell and 21 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.