Mesoscale Discussion 796

Issued

May 12, 2012, 3:47 PM MDT (21:47 UTC)

Expired

May 12, 2012, 5:15 PM MDT

In force

88 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

329 
ACUS11 KWNS 122148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122147
NMZ000-122315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122147Z - 122315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...VWP DATA FROM ALBUQUERQUE DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
LOW-LEVEL ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW...ALBEIT MODEST IN MAGNITUDE -- I.E.
AROUND 15 KNOTS. AND...GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S -- ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY AIDED BY
DIURNAL HEATING...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED VWP
DATA ALSO INDICATE AROUND 40-50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SRN FRINGES
OF A MINOR IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING UPWARDS OF 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BREED AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS WHERE A DEEPER LAYER
OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.

HOWEVER...WITH ONLY WEAK DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MINOR IMPULSE...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ALLOW THE SVR THREAT TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING SUPPORTS INCREASING CINH. ALSO OF NOTE...THE SVR THREAT IS
NOT FORECAST TO EXTEND APPRECIABLY EWD TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM...WHERE GENERALLY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ARE IN PLACE /AS MANIFESTED BY WAVE CLOUD STRUCTURES IN E-CNTRL NM
PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   36830404 36420367 35870414 35330496 34380506 33180498
            32530543 32470670 32900751 34570751 35980708 36630609
            36890515 36830404

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.