Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 790

May 11, 2012Otero County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2012, 6:02 PM MDT for Otero County, New Mexico. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2012, 6:02 PM MDT (00:02 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2012, 7:30 PM MDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

County Otero County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2012-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2012-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 36 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
4267 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
ACUS11 KWNS 120002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120002 
NMZ000-120130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120002Z - 120130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SCNTRL NM
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL
NM NEAR THE WHITE SANDS MISSLE RANGE. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AN
MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 750 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NM THIS EVENING
SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL
TURNING FROM 850 TO 500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/M SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
STORM ROTATION. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AROUND AN INCH
IN DIAMETER WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

..BROYLES.. 05/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32270534 32600515 32900493 33120482 33380487 33550503
            33640541 33660582 33640611 33590631 33430649 33030665
            32600666 32220638 32110568 32270534

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 3:47 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBernalillo, Colfax, Lincoln, Los Alamos, Mora, Otero and 8 more88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.