Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 725

May 5, 201235 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT for 35 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 5, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC)
Expired
May 5, 2012, 11:15 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Brookings County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Lake County, SD, Moody County, SD

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-05-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-05-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -28 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
850 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

737 
ACUS11 KWNS 060252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060251
MNZ000-SDZ000-060415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN SD INTO SW AND CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...253...

VALID 060251Z - 060415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
252...253...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET TO AROUND 40 KT HAS OCCURRED
NEAR/NORTH OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.  A
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR.  HOWEVER
...WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS GENERALLY CONFINED ACTIVITY TO
AREAS GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR.  BUT...STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 700
MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DEFINING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER
CAPPING...COINCIDING WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING THE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 05-06Z.

..KERR.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45669662 45989532 45919383 45159295 44309296 43859411
            43779547 43739656 44039758 44789712 45669662

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 8:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Pope, Stevens, Swift and 2 more4 hr
May 5, 10:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCottonwood, Jackson, Lyon, Murray, Nobles7 hr
May 5, 11:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Hennepin, Jackson and 16 more89 min
May 6, 2:12 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Jackson, Martin, Mower and 3 more63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.