Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 701

May 4, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2012, 7:52 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2012, 7:52 PM EDT (23:52 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2012, 8:45 PM EDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 117 counties

Boone County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Adams County, OH, Allen County, OH, Athens County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 11 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 476 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

754 
ACUS11 KWNS 042353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042352
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...CENTRAL IND...ERN KY AND PARTS OF WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042352Z - 050045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN
OH...CENTRAL IND...AND NERN KY...WITH THE OH/KY ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING SWD INTO ERN KY/WV.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE ONSET OF COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUGGESTS THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  MEANWHILE... TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL IND SHOULD ALSO HAVE A SHORT LIFESPAN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES. ONE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS NRN OH /30 S YNG-20
S MFD-40 E FWA THEN INTO FAR NERN IND AND FAR SWRN LOWER MI. THE
SECOND BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED N-S FROM NWRN OH INTO NERN KY.  ALL OF
THE 15Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUGGESTED THE OH/KY ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD MOVING
CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH THE
LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
WW.

MEANWHILE ACROSS CENTRAL IND...AN APPARENT MCV PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IND
THIS EVENING.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE MAY AID ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LARGELY
SUB-SEVERE.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   37488459 38298413 38378423 38838459 39268511 39508614
            39658683 39908685 40218674 40438543 40608453 41228452
            40628336 40528210 40818102 40118081 39348092 38418116
            37938182 37678219 37488459

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 11:29 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter	61 min
May 4, 12:34 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Jasper, Newton	5 hr
May 4, 3:16 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Jasper, Newton, Pulaski, White	119 min
May 4, 12:36 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson and 11 more	84 min
May 4, 2:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dearborn and 25 more	5 hr
May 4, 4:16 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson and 19 more	59 min
May 4, 1:26 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Trumbull	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.