Mesoscale Discussion 623

Issued

Apr 29, 2012, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)

Expired

Apr 29, 2012, 8:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205Apr 29, 8:05 PM CDT

749 
ACUS11 KWNS 292252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292251
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...SWRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292251Z - 300115Z

GRADUAL DEEPENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ARE PSBL FOR CONVECTIVE
PLUME NOW EVIDENT IN VIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL OK
NEWD OVER ERN KS AND SERN MO.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS
WEAK/NEBULOUS...BUOYANCY AND SHEAR PROFILES DO INDICATE SVR THREAT
WITH TSTMS EVOLVING FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

RGL SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TWO PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER
REGION...
1. STRONGER AND QUASISTATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF
LIC...ITR...GBD...EMP...OJC AND INTO CENTRAL MO...FCST TO MOVE
LITTLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
2. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS TO NERN OK AND MOVING
NWD 10-15 KT IN STEP WITH AMBIENT SFC WINDS ON BOTH SIDES.
DIFFUSE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING WNWWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES FROM
SERN PORTIONS WW 203 SSWWD.

SFC MOIST AXIS...WITH DEW POINTS 67-70 F...WAS ANALYZED NEAR
SZL...BVO...OUN...FSI...FDR LINE.  BKN LOW CLOUDS HAVE LED TO SLOW
DIABATIC HEATING OF SW-NE CORRIDOR NEAR MOIST AXIS...MINIMIZING
MLCINH AND MAXIMIZING MLCAPE AT AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG S OF WARM
FRONT...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT OVER OK.  MLCAPE BETWEEN WARM AND
STATIONARY FRONTS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...1000-2000 J/KG...BUT STILL
FAVORABLE GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR OVER SRN/SERN KS...I.E.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT.  ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE RISING
OVER THIS REGION...HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
MAINTAINED...LEADING TO LITTLE CHANGE IN DEEP-SHEAR VALUES. SFC FLOW
IS DIFLUENT OVER N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL KS...WHERE IT SPLITS
BETWEEN STREAMS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MO/IA AND LEE TROUGHING OVER HIGH PLAINS.  THIS LEADS TO CURRENTLY
SMALL HODOGRAPHS...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WITH SLGT STRENGTHENING OF 850-MB FLOW FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD.  AS
SUCH...BOTH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE.  GROWING
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NWD TO NEWD OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS.
SOME CONVECTION-RESOLVING/HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REASONABLY INDICATES ITS
NW FRINGES EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH TSTMS MOVING OUT OF WW 203.

..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36729443 35549599 35289789 36229850 37349858 38499790
            39079314 37519391 36729443

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.