Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 397

March 31, 20126 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2012, 12:29 PM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2012, 12:29 PM CDT (17:29 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2012, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 100 counties

Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Winston County, AL, Arkansas County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Desha County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Dade County, GA, Dunklin County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marion County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Moore County, TN, Perry County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1894 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 20 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1894 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
915 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

119 
ACUS11 KWNS 311729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311729 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL/MS...ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 311729Z - 311900Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN BY
18-19Z...WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NRN AL/MS AND
PERHAPS ERN AR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

MIDDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE
LWR/MID OH VALLEY...WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN TX. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WWD INTO TN...WHICH
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD INTO THE LWR MO VALLEY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE TN
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM WILL FAVOR STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE OVER WRN/MIDDLE TN
DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO. STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD S INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN AL/MS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MIDLEVEL NWLY WINDS FROM
30-40 KT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LARGE BUOYANCY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR SVR HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..GARNER.. 03/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36169026 36578560 34938530 34008681 33669136 34979180
            36169026

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 12:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale and 5 more8 hr
Mar 31, 3:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison58 min
Mar 31, 5:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Colbert and 22 more30 min
Mar 31, 5:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Etowah and 12 more3 hr
Mar 31, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Independence and 7 more64 min
Mar 31, 6:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Decatur, Grady, Seminole, Thomas117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.