Mesoscale Discussion 330

Issued

Mar 22, 2012, 4:01 PM CDT (21:01 UTC)

Expired

Mar 22, 2012, 6:00 PM CDT

In force

119 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

432 
ACUS11 KWNS 222102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222101
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND NORTHEAST TX/WESTERN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222101Z - 222300Z

LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND NORTHEAST TX AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN
AR. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD/VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
OK/SOUTHERN KS...IT SEEMS LIKELY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE/JET STREAK
ALOFT /PER REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA AND SATELLITE/ WILL
CYCLONICALLY PIVOT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS
/INCLUDING RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE/ SUGGEST THAT THE
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST /LOWER 50S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ NOR CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME...SUCH DEVELOPMENT
COULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ADJACENT FAR NORTH TX ON
THE FRINGE OF A THICK MID-CLOUD DECK AS IT ABATES/SHIFTS AWAY. EVEN
WITH MODEST OVERALL BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/...A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONAL UPON
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION MATERIALIZING...WIND PROFILES COULD
SUPPORT A MIXED-MODE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH FAST
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SEVERE
HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO.

..GUYER.. 03/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34069666 35119618 35839515 35879393 34929361 34059380
            33399440 33079573 34069666

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.