Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 309

March 20, 201210 counties in Arkansas; Howell County, Oregon County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 20, 2012, 5:57 PM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; Howell County, Oregon County, Missouri. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 20, 2012, 5:57 PM CDT (22:57 UTC)
Expired
Mar 20, 2012, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Arkansas County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Sharp County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 223 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 175 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
223 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

234 
ACUS11 KWNS 202257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202257 
ARZ000-MOZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR INTO SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

VALID 202257Z - 210030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID EVENING OVER ERN AR. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD
SPREAD NWD INTO SCNTRL MO THIS EVENING...AND THIS AREA IS BEING
MONITORED.

BROKEN LINE WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES EXTENDS
FROM NCNTRL SSEWD THROUGH SERN AR. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ BUT 40 KT
VERTICAL SHEAR AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 200-300
M2/S2. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT NEXT 2-3 HOURS
AS IT LIFTS NNEWD. 

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY DECREASES EVEN
FURTHER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN MO. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS INTO MO...SO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
REGION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVER A PORTION OF SRN MO...ESPECIALLY AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   33729145 35339182 36909229 36959130 34129095 33729145

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 19, 7:28 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHoward, Little River, Miller, Sevier9 hr
Mar 19, 8:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington57 min
Mar 19, 10:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy58 min
Mar 19, 10:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy3 hr
Mar 20, 1:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland and 22 more117 min
Mar 20, 2:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland and 25 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.