Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 93

March 20, 201231 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 20, 2012, 2:55 PM CDT for 31 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 20, 2012, 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC)
Expired
Mar 20, 2012, 9:45 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 31 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Grant County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Perry County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 20, 2:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Hot Spring, Pulaski, Saline46 min
Mar 20, 3:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDallas, Grant, Saline38 min
Mar 20, 3:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Pope, Van Buren36 min
Mar 20, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Grant, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline25 min
Mar 20, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski, White47 min
Mar 20, 4:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Stone, Van Buren44 min
Mar 20, 4:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Van Buren, White51 min
Mar 20, 5:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Cleveland, Jefferson, Lincoln41 min
Mar 20, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Marion, Searcy, Stone, Van Buren51 min
Mar 20, 5:14 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Van Buren31 min
Mar 20, 5:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Izard, Stone, Van Buren38 min
Mar 20, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Marion36 min
Mar 20, 6:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White38 min
Mar 20, 6:15 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKCleburne, Independence, Izard, Stone19 min
Mar 20, 6:17 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White28 min
Mar 20, 6:42 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKCleburne, Lonoke, Prairie, White33 min
Mar 20, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 223 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-03-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 175 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
223 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

419 
WWUS20 KWNS 201957
SEL3
SPC WW 201957
ARZ000-210300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 92...

DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ROUGHLY BISECTING
AR WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD...WITH
OTHER TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. A RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG/DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY YIELD STRONGER/SEVERE UPDRAFTS WITH THE QLCS...INCLUDING
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.


...GUYER/THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 19, 7:28 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHoward, Little River, Miller, Sevier9 hr
Mar 19, 8:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington57 min
Mar 19, 10:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy58 min
Mar 19, 10:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy3 hr
Mar 20, 1:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland and 22 more117 min
Mar 20, 5:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Jackson, Monroe and 4 more93 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.