Tornado Warning 19, NWS Little Rock, AR

821 
WWUS54 KLZK 202332
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

ARC085-117-145-202345-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120320T2345Z/
LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WHITE AR-
632 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE...
NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE AND CENTRAL LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF SISEMORE...OR 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LONOKE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
  LONOKE...             THURMAN...            SYLVANIA...
  SISEMORE...           MCCREANOR...          CARLISLE...
  BEEBE...              WOODLAWN...           VINITY CORNER...
  PETTUS...             HICKORY PLAINS...     FAIRVIEW...
  CULLER...             BUTLERVILLE...        WATTENSAW...
  WATERPROOF...         EDWARDS...            CHEEK LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 9193 3509 9166 3461 9179 3462 9193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 186DEG 36KT 3486 9184

$$

62

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
317 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF ERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX AND WRN LA.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY REMAINED JUST WEST OF
AR...THOUGH LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR WRN AR ALREADY SAW OVER 2 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WAS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH INTO WRN AR ONCE
AGAIN. EARLIER THIS MORNING...AN OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...GENERATING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHRA...WITH THE OCCASIONAL THUNDER. OVERTIME HOWEVER...THE
EWD MOMENTUM AS DECREASED...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. WEST OF
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY...WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST TO
THE EAST...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED COMMON...AND SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. WILL REMOVE THE LAKE WIND ADV WEST OF THIS
LINE...BUT CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE STATE. FURTHER EAST...EXPECTED
MORE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO BE POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SVR WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. BY LATE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SVR WX ACROSS THE CWA TO
DECREASE.

OVERNIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST/NE.
BY SUNRISE WED MORNING...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE
SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BISECT THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE BY WED MORNING...WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS THE DAY GOES ON...THE PRECIP
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER TIME WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST. EVEN SO...AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO 1
INCH OF RAIN COULD BE SEEN ALONG THIS MAIN AXIS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WED.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW...AND LIFT NORTH OVER AR. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING...BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE CWA. THIS WOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE EVENT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CURRENT LOCATIONS AND CURRENT
TIME SPAN.

BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NE
ACROSS THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO...ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW AS IT PASSES FROM WRN
AR INTO NERN AR. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI FOR
THIS SCENARIO. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM SW TO NE FRI NIGHT INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  71  53  70 /  80  70  80  30
CAMDEN AR         58  63  51  73 / 100  80  60  20
HARRISON AR       55  61  48  68 /  90  70  70  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  62  50  71 / 100  80  60  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  65  53  71 /  80  80  70  20
MONTICELLO AR     64  67  53  72 /  80  80  70  20
MOUNT IDA AR      52  60  48  69 / 100  80  50  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  65  51  70 /  80  70  80  20
NEWPORT AR        65  73  55  70 /  60  60  80  30
PINE BLUFF AR     63  66  53  71 /  80  80  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  62  50  70 /  90  80  60  20
SEARCY AR         63  67  53  70 /  80  70  80  20
STUTTGART AR      65  68  54  71 /  80  80  80  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BRADLEY-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CONWAY-DALLAS-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-VAN BUREN-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR BRADLEY-CLEVELAND-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-PULASKI-SALINE.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EAST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...AS MORE RAIN
FALLS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SLOW MOVING STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER
FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EVEN A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SOME
TOTALS IN THE WEST COULD EASILY EXCEED 8 INCHES. THESE HIGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WATER RESCUES AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS. RIVER FLOODING WOULD
ALSO RESULT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATCHES MAY HAVE TO
BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT TIME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FLOODING RAINS.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AND ENDING. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY DUE TO THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS...AND IF FLASH FLOODING BECOMES LIFE THREATENING
ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59/51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRILTON               35.16N 92.74W
03/20/2012                   CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FENCE WAS BLOWN DOWN AND THERE WAS DAMAGE TO THE FASCIA
            OF A CHURCH. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AS
            WELL.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
348 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                34.31N 92.41W
03/20/2012  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN AND AROUND
            SHERIDAN.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRILTON               35.16N 92.74W
03/20/2012                   CONWAY             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            *** 1 INJ *** TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN. SOME
            TREES FELL ON HOUSES. ONE INJURY WAS CAUSED BY A TREE
            FALLING INTO A HOUSE. A FENCE WAS BLOWN DOWN AND THE
            FASCIA OF A CHURCH WAS DAMAGED. ACCORDING TO HAM RADIO
            OPERATORS... THE DAMAGE IS ABOUT 6 TO 8 BLOCKS LONG AND 2
            BLOCKS WIDE. THIS IS AN UPDATE OF A PREVIOUS STORM
            REPORT.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE DAMASCUS          35.41N 92.40W
03/20/2012                   VAN BUREN          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL TREES LIMBS REPOTRTED DOWN AND PIECES OF SIDING
            BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
542 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N DAMASCUS            35.41N 92.42W
03/20/2012                   VAN BUREN          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ROOFS WERE BLOWN OFF TWO BARNS AND A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN
            DOWN.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLAG                    35.82N 92.40W
03/20/2012                   STONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN OVER ANGORA MOUNTAIN ROAD

&&

BJS