Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2213
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 25, 2012, 1:00 PM CST for 6 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 25, 2012, 1:00 PM CST (19:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 25, 2012, 6:00 PM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties
Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1037 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 279 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 301 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
011
ACUS11 KWNS 251900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251900
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR NWRN LA...EXTREME
SERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 251900Z - 260000Z
SUMMARY...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5
IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE DFW AREA
TO TEXARKANA.
DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE WRN BRANCH
OF A BIFURCATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND COLD CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURES
NEAR AND S OF THE RED RIVER WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION INTO THE
EVENING FROM N-CNTRL TX EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS DEEPER COLD
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOWER-MS-VALLEY SFC
LOW...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL COOL. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW FROM W TO E...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET MAY OCCUR. PER OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CONSENSUS AMONGST
SHORT-RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE...THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND THE DFW METROPLEX TO S OF DURANT OK AROUND
20Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ZONE OF INFERRED
ASCENT...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED N OF A LINE FROM
THE DFW AREA TO TEXARKANA...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL
BE MOST LIKELY. THESE RATES WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
W/E-ORIENTED LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AT THE BASE OF
STRONGER UPWARD MOTION. RELATIVELY WEAKER ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT LOWER RATES FARTHER SOUTH.
..COHEN.. 12/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34019302 33249302 32799384 32559550 32629693 33239726
33749692 33799621 33959442 34019302SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 9:02 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot, Union | 7 hr |
| Dec 25, 12:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland and 20 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 25, 12:23 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 67 min |
| Dec 25, 2:14 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Craighead, Cross and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Dec 25, 3:22 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chicot | 53 min |
| Dec 25, 1:01 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Bell, Bosque, Brazos and 37 more | 59 min |
| Dec 25, 1:37 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson and 36 more | 7 hr |
| Dec 25, 5:56 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson and 38 more | 94 min |
| Dec 25, 7:00 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Harris, Jasper and 9 more | 60 min |
| Dec 25, 8:46 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Cherokee, Fort Bend, Galveston and 26 more | 59 min |
| Dec 25, 9:17 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Dec 25, 9:31 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Hood and 10 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 25, 11:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Wichita, Wilbarger | 4 hr |
| Dec 25, 12:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton and 1 more | 71 min |
| Dec 25, 2:50 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Wichita, Wilbarger | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.