Mesoscale Discussion 2156

Issued

Dec 14, 2012, 3:38 PM CST (21:38 UTC)

Expired

Dec 14, 2012, 5:15 PM CST

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

344 
ACUS11 KWNS 142138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142138 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681...

VALID 142138Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WITH SVR WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
EWD ACROSS WW 681 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING AREAS FROM
LUBBOCK TO AMARILLO BETWEEN 2215 AND 2245Z.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG DCVA/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
ANTECEDENT INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE EWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WRN OK GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND
KINEMATIC FIELDS -- E.G. WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 50 KT AOA 1 KM AGL
PER AMARILLO/LUBBOCK VWP DATA AND JAYTON WIND PROFILER DATA.
AMARILLO/LUBBOCK BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE SEVERAL LEWP
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...AND ACCOMPANYING MESOVORTICES
MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED SVR WIND THREAT...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
SEVERAL MEASURED WIND REPORTS OF 58-74 MPH HAVE EMANATED FROM THIS
LINE OF STORMS...AND SVR WINDS REMAIN LIKELY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET ACROSS THE SQUALL LINE /FALLS OF 3-4 MB
PER 2 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE AND RISES OF 4-5 MB PER 2 HOURS
BEHIND THE LINE/. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD
AROUND 40-45 KT TAKES THE SVR THREAT THROUGH THE LUBBOCK-AMARILLO
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2215 AND 2245Z. LOCATIONS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
MAY BE CLEARED FROM THE WW.

..COHEN.. 12/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33789946 32850303 35450303 36389947 33789946

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.