Mesoscale Discussion 2155

Issued

Dec 14, 2012, 1:12 PM MST (20:12 UTC)

Expired

Dec 14, 2012, 2:45 PM MST

In force

93 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

60%

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 681Dec 14, 1:30 PM MST

964 
ACUS11 KWNS 142012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142012 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NM...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...OK
PANHANDLE...PARTS OF WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142012Z - 142145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS FROM WRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE SWWD INTO E-CNTRL
NM ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SVR WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WILL LIE
FROM NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMPRISED
OF TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER AZ/NM...WITH THE ERN-MOST FEATURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD/NEWD FROM CNTRL NM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ACCOMPANYING STRONG DCVA/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES INTO A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE
PER MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISE-FALL
COUPLET ACROSS THE FRONT /FALLS OVER 2 MB PER 2 HOURS LEADING THE
FRONT AND RISES OVER 4 MB PER 2 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT/ ARE
INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE FLOW AND
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM.

BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL NM BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
ADJACENT W TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE MEAGER DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...VWP DATA FROM CANNON AIR FORCE BASE DEPICT OVER 50
KT OF FLOW AOA 1 KM AGL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
CORE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
STRUCTURES. ALSO...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AT LEAST
MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THOUGH THE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER BUOYANCY. STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLES...AS WELL AS WRN OK BY MID-EVENING...THOUGH
A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK NEAR/NE OF A WEAKLY DEFINED WARM FRONT MAY
FURTHER LIMIT BUOYANCY AND THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/GOSS/CORFIDI.. 12/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36619977 35089957 33600086 33070212 33050306 33460364
            34470372 36580250 36940080 36619977

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.