Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2116
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 11, 2012, 5:49 AM CST for 10 counties in Kansas; 29 counties in Missouri; 15 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 11, 2012, 5:49 AM CST (11:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 11, 2012, 7:15 AM CST
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 54 counties
Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Polk County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1961 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 279 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 467 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
277
ACUS11 KWNS 111150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111149
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/FAR ERN KS/WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111149Z - 111315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN OK INTO FAR ERN KS AND INTO WRN
MO.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOW ECHOES ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THESE TSTMS ARE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND
THROUGH CENTRAL TO ERN KS. ALTHOUGH TIME OF DAY AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INHIBITION COULD LIMIT DOWNWARD
PENETRATION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
SEGMENTS ARE FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED STEADY AND/OR RISEN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
RECENT STORM REPORTS FROM CNU /IN SERN KS/ WHERE ONE OF THE LINE
SEGMENTS MOVED THROUGH PRODUCING A MEASURED WIND GUST OF 57 KT AND
FAST STORM MOVEMENTS NEAR 60 KT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CLOUDINESS
LOCATED E OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND TEND TO INHIBIT STRONGER INSTABILITY THAT
WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUS...A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES THAT WOULD RESULT IN
REEVALUATION FOR A WATCH.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35619675 37179595 39289458 39699409 39839307 39429228
37719311 36469415 35629500 35309572 35409650 35619675SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 7:31 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 30 more | 59 min |
| Nov 10, 10:05 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Harper, Harvey and 15 more | 55 min |
| Nov 11, 10:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McCurtain | 2 hr |
| Nov 11, 12:53 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | McCurtain | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.