Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2115

November 10, 201221 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 10, 2012, 10:05 PM CST for 21 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2012, 10:05 PM CST (04:05 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2012, 11:00 PM CST
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 33 counties

Barber County, KS, Clay County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Washington County, KS, Burt County, NE, Cass County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Washington County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 245 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -250 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1233 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 313 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 277 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

726 
ACUS11 KWNS 110406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110405
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-110500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...

VALID 110405Z - 110500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS OF WW 675 MAY BE NEEDED FOR 1-2 HRS
AFT 05Z BUT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST TSTMS WITHIN THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW 675 WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN KS AT 04Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO SERN NEB. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AS
INCREASING CINH RESULTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS
MAY BE NEEDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO IF ON-GOING TSTMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY VIA AN ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL. OVERALL HOWEVER...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A NEW WW.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 11/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37039712 37029933 39449750 40599698 42119623 40949580
            40539587 39559624 38519635 37949712 37039712

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 10, 7:31 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 30 more	59 min
Nov 11, 5:49 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Johnson, Labette and 4 more	86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.