Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2089

October 25, 2012Baraga County, Dickinson County, Iron County, Michigan; 4 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 25, 2012, 9:48 AM EDT for Baraga County, Dickinson County, Iron County, Michigan; 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 27 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 25, 2012, 9:48 AM EDT (13:48 UTC)
Expired: Oct 25, 2012, 10:15 AM EDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Baraga County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Iron County, MI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Menominee County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672Oct 25, 9:55 AM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 631 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 681 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

184 
ACUS11 KWNS 251349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251348
MIZ000-WIZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI THROUGH WRN AND WCNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 251348Z - 251415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AT LEAST UNTIL 16Z FROM NERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI. WW WILL
BE ISSUED SOON FOR WRN LOWER MI.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THEY RACE NEWD AT 65 KT. MORNING RAOB DATA
SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SFC
LAYER WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..DIAL/CARBIN.. 10/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   45238964 46078898 46778844 46758774 46158674 44688915
            45238964

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 25, 9:52 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Marquette and 1 more	4 hr
Oct 25, 12:47 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Delta, Dickinson, Menominee	58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.