Mesoscale Discussion 2084

Issued

Oct 22, 2012, 1:27 PM CDT (18:27 UTC)

Expired

Oct 22, 2012, 4:00 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

420 
ACUS11 KWNS 221827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221827 
TXZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 221827Z - 222100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SPORADIC NATURE AND MARGINALITY OF ANY SVR THREAT
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCS -- LIES APPROXIMATELY FROM GYI
TO THE DFW METROPLEX TO NEAR SEP TO 20 S ABI WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
STRONG STORM OVER CALLAHAN AND COLEMAN COUNTIES. THE COLD POOL WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX WHILE TRAILING WSWWD TOWARD
BWD. DESPITE RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
GUST FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG CAPPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EML
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...AS
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S
SERVING TO ERODE CINH...STRONGER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHILE BEING MAINTAINED OVER ITS WRN EXTENT. INCIPIENT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT...WITH ANY SVR THREAT
BEING BRIEF/SPORADIC...OWING TO /1/ VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...AND /2/
DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR
/ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ TO THE NW OF THE GUST FRONT.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32099983 32319962 32399884 32979759 33679693 33679638
            33479595 32929585 32339622 31619718 31399853 31749973
            32099983

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.