Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2083
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 22, 2012, 10:37 AM CDT for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 22, 2012, 10:37 AM CDT (15:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 22, 2012, 11:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1026 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -229 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 648 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 194 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
729
ACUS11 KWNS 221538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221537
TXZ000-221630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221537Z - 221630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE A MODEST UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. HAIL APPROACHING
MARGINALLY SVR THRESHOLDS MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING
TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML SAMPLED BY
THE 12Z FORT WORTH RAOB -- I.E. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 8 C/KM
SUPPORTING MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. ALSO...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE EWD-MOVING COLD POOL OWING TO ITS /1/
SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONGER
DEEP SHEAR ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FARTHER W/NW AND /2/ DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BEING NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. AS SUCH...ANY STRONG/SVR
STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF/SPORADIC.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33569697 32769706 31929811 31639921 31860052 32210048
32480012 33009927 33659840 33769755 33569697SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 1:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 17 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.