Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2033

October 12, 2012Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 1:19 AM MST for Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2012, 1:19 AM MST (08:19 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2012, 3:15 AM MST
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Apache County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 29 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 371 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

524 
ACUS11 KWNS 120819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120819 
TXZ000-NMZ000-120945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120819Z - 120945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OTERO...LINCOLN...CHAVES...AND EDDY COUNTIES IN SERN NM.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION
PROGRESSING NNEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NM /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WITH
STORMS PROBABLY ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP OBSERVED AROUND 770 MB ON THE
00Z MAF SOUNDING.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN EML /I.E. 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C PER KM/ AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SPORADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
HAIL.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE
STORMS...SO THE DURATION OF THE THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION.  SHOULD
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS HAIL THREAT WOULD APPROACH THE NM-TX
STATE LINE AROUND 12Z.

..MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33730510 34160381 34200324 34050289 33220279 32810273
            32490296 32240346 32060420 32110464 32440507 33060525
            33730510

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 2:52 AM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Apache, Navajo	113 min
Oct 12, 9:49 AM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Apache	86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.