Mesoscale Discussion 20

Issued

Jan 16, 2012, 11:23 PM CST (05:23 UTC)

Expired

Jan 17, 2012, 1:30 AM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 1Jan 16, 11:50 PM CST

528 
ACUS11 KWNS 170524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170523
MOZ000-170730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL/SRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170523Z - 170730Z

BAND OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS...ALONG
AND S OF COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW. MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE
ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT...AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
SOME BACKBUILDING AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE
OVER WRN OZARKS...CONDITIONALLY EXTENDING THREAT SWD TOWARD AR
BORDER.  BRIEF/QLCS-ORIGIN TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THIS
THREAT ALSO IS VERY CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NEAR SFC.

05Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM LOW OVER N-CENTRAL IL SWD
ACROSS PORTIONS CALLAWAY/MORGAN/CEDAR COUNTIES MO.  THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL MO...WHILE SRN
PORTION OF TSTM BAND REMAINS OVER WARM SECTOR.  CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED BAND STRADDLING FRONT AT OBLIQUE
ANGLE...AND MOVING NEWD 40-50 KT OVER AREAS BETWEEN JLN-COU.
LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPLY FAVORABLY UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC IN WARM SECTOR...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING MUCAPE IN 250-700 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF AREA.
 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND RELATED STRENGTH OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THAT FLOW...AND ISOLATED STG-DAMAGING
GUSTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED NEAR-SFC
AIR.  THAT DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER ALSO MAY BE OFFSET BY SFC WAA.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RISK FOR EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS MAY BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT WHERE BAND OF TSTMS IMPINGES ON NARROW CHANNEL
OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY...WITH
LLJ-ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 250-400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH
EVIDENT FROM SGF VWP AND CNW PROFILER.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37609413 38139339 38639221 38839116 37849110 36909194
            36669392 37369413 37609413

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.