Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1940

September 8, 201229 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 8, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT for 29 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired
Sep 8, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 38 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, Greensville County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1300 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1300 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
752 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

571 
ACUS11 KWNS 082311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082310
NCZ000-VAZ000-090015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...

VALID 082310Z - 090015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW
638 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FROM
CNTRL NC INTO SE VA...AN EWD EXTENSION OF THE WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF
STORM INTENSITY PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE
INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO FROM SE VA
INTO CNTRL NC. ALSO NOTED ON KRAX WSR-88D WAS THE WESTWARD ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH BOUNDARY.
IT APPEARS OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION AND THIS BOUNDARY MY
INTERSECT NEAR THE EASTERN MARGINS OF THE WATCH AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
OF RDU NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER.  THIS MAY HELP
REINFORCE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
GIVEN MODERATE DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...AN EWD
EXTENSION OF WW 638 MAY BE NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 09/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36007847 37277733 37107661 36797637 35657670 35237691
            34607758 34297842 34427892 35137916 35447949 36007847

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 8, 12:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Caswell, Davidson, Davie and 10 more115 min
Sep 8, 1:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCabarrus, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln and 6 more2 hr
Sep 8, 1:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba and 44 more7 hr
Sep 8, 3:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba, Chatham and 33 more65 min
Sep 8, 11:38 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 16 more97 min
Sep 8, 12:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbemarle, Arlington, Augusta, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax and 27 more9 hr
Sep 8, 2:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William and 8 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.