Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1882

September 4, 2012Harrison County, Monona County, Iowa; 31 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 4, 2012, 5:08 PM CDT for Harrison County, Monona County, Iowa; 31 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 4, 2012, 5:08 PM CDT (22:08 UTC)
Expired
Sep 4, 2012, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 33 counties

Harrison County, IA, Monona County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2012-09-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2282 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2012-09-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2282 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

726 
ACUS11 KWNS 042209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042208
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME SERN SD INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042208Z - 042345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY
INCREASE OVER WRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NWRN KS. A WEAKER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER SERN NEB. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO 100 F AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 40S RESULTING
IN DEEPLY MIXED AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYERS. INSTABILITY
REMAINS AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEB TO THE WEST OF PRIMARY
MOIST AXIS WITH MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IA.
HIGH BASED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND MAY INTENSITY AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS DEVELOP EWD AND INTERCEPT STRONGER INSTABILITY.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FROM NERN NEB INTO WRN
IA WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40369781 41369818 42519837 42879814 42799692 41769555
            40499608 40369781

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 4, 1:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Chickasaw, Clayton, Delaware, Fayette and 2 more117 min
Sep 4, 3:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Chickasaw and 9 more8 hr
Sep 4, 6:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Chickasaw and 9 more66 min
Sep 3, 7:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Custer, Garfield, Holt, Loup, Rock and 1 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.